Consulting, Newsletter, Tech

Weekly Market Recap | Nov 03 – Nov 09

Posted on by Ali

Analyst Highlights

  • Weekly tape: S&P 500 6,728.8 (−1.8%); Russell 1000/2000/3000 −1.7%/−1.6%/−1.7%; Dow −0.7%; Nasdaq −3.5%; VIX 19.08 (+11%).
  • Crypto: Total cap pulled back after an Oct. peak; BTC 106,511 (≈flat w/w); ETH +1%, SOL +0.8%, XRP +4.0%—vol still elevated after ~$300B drawdown.
  • Primary markets: Nine listings including BETA ($1B+), BillionToOne ($273M), Aeroméxico ($223M), Evommune ($150M), Exzeo ($168M); multiple SPACs added liquidity.
  • Policy watch: Senate’s test vote to end the shutdown in focus; politics docket heavy (Syria sanctions lift, EU steel tariff push, minerals diplomacy).
  • AI/build-out capex: Microsoft $60B+, Amazon–OpenAI $38B, $18B DC campus financing; Caterpillar capacity expansion underscores power scarcity theme.
  • Macro data: U-Mich sentiment 50.3 near cycle lows; 10Y ~4.09% / 2Y ~3.56% largely steady; Taiwan exports +49.7% y/y (AI chips) with 2025 exports ≈$600B outlook.

IPO’s in the week

  • Crown Reserve Acquisition Corp. I (CRACU, Nasdaq Global), a blank-check company targeting pharma/medtech, medical equipment, and healthcare IT, priced on Nov 7, 2025: 15,000,000 units at $10.00, raising ~$150.0M. Proceeds will fund an initial business combination.
  • Tailwind 2.0 Acquisition Corp. (TDWDU, Nasdaq Global), a blank-check company focusing on the intelligence layer of energy and compute infrastructure (routing, compute optimization, grid intelligence), priced on Nov 7, 2025: 15,000,000 units at $10.00, raising ~$150.0M. Proceeds will fund an initial business combination.
  • BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN, Nasdaq Global Select), a molecular diagnostics company using single-molecule NGS for prenatal (UNITY) and oncology (Northstar) tests, priced on Nov 6, 2025: 4,551,100 shares at $60.00, raising ~$273.1M. Proceeds to scale commercialization and R&D.
  • Evommune, Inc. (EVMN, NYSE), a clinical-stage biotech developing therapies for chronic inflammatory diseases (EVO756, EVO301), priced on Nov 6, 2025: 9,375,000 shares at $16.00, raising ~$150.0M. Proceeds will advance Phase 2 programs and pipeline.
  • Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO, NYSE), Mexico’s only full-service carrier with a long-haul international network, priced on Nov 6, 2025: 11,727,325 shares at $19.00, raising ~$222.8M. Proceeds to support fleet and network growth.
  • Elauwit Connection, Inc. (ELWT, Nasdaq Capital), a broadband provider to multifamily and student housing (Managed Services, Network-as-a-Service), priced on Nov 5, 2025: 1,667,000 shares at $9.00, raising ~$15.0M. Proceeds for network builds and growth.
  • Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO, NYSE), an insurance-technology provider with an IaaS platform for P&C carriers (quoting, policy, claims, analytics), priced on Nov 5, 2025: 8,000,000 shares at $21.00, raising ~$168.0M. Proceeds to scale the Exzeo Platform and carrier partnerships.
  • BETA Technologies (BETA, NYSE), an Amazon-backed eVTOL/electric aircraft company, priced on Nov 4, 2025: 29,900,000 shares at $34.00, raising over $1.0B. Proceeds to scale production, expand charging network, and advance FAA certification.
  • Cantor Equity Partners V, Inc. (CEPV, Nasdaq Global), a blank-check company with a focus on financial services, digital assets, healthcare, real estate services, and tech/software, priced on Nov 4, 2025: 22,000,000 units at $10.00, raising ~$220.0M. Proceeds will fund an initial business combination.
  • Westin Acquisition Corp (WSTNU, Nasdaq Capital), a blank-check company incorporated in the Cayman Islands, priced on Nov 5, 2025: 5,000,000 units at $10.00, raising ~$50.0M. Proceeds will fund an initial business combination.

Markets Weekly

  1. S&P 500 closed at 6,728.80, down 123.17 points and 1.80% for the week.
  2. Russell 1000 closed at 3,672.01, down 64.62 points and 1.73% for the week.
  3. Russell 2000 closed at 2,432.82, down 38.42 points and 1.55% for the week.
  4. Russell 3000 closed at 3,818.93, down 66.90 points and 1.72% for the week.
  5. CBOE (VIX) closed at 19.08, up 1.91 points and 11.12% for the week.
  6. Dow Jones closed at 46,987.10, down 349.58 points and 0.74% for the week.
  7. Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,004.54, down 830.18 points and 3.48% for the week.
  8. Bitcoin (USD) closed at 106,511.29, down 36.23 points and 0.03% for the week.
  9. Ether (USD) closed at 3,639.40, up 37.09 points and 1.03% for the week.
  10. Solana (USD) closed at 167.36, up 1.27 points and 0.76% for the week.
  11. XRP (USD) closed at 2.4034, up 0.0934 points and 4.04% for the week.
  12. Gold closed at 3,999.40, up 23.10 points and 0.58% for the week.
  13. Silver closed at 48.017, up 0.129 points and 0.27% for the week.
  14. WTI Crude closed at 59.75, down 1.30 points and 2.13% for the week.
  15. Brent Crude closed at 63.63, down 1.26 points and 1.94% for the week.
  • US consumer sentiment drops to 50.3 in preliminary November, near a record low, as shutdown uncertainty and prices sour household outlook.
  • 10-year yields little changed at ~4.09% while 2-year holds ~3.56%; curve tone steady as traders wait for shutdown resolution and jobs data return.
  • Global crypto market cap peaked near $4.4T on Oct 6, then fell ~20%, leaving 2025 gains at roughly +2.5% YTD.
  • Boeing commits $1B+ to expand its 787 complex in South Carolina; aims to double monthly wide-body output as order momentum builds.
  • Longest US shutdown obscures key releases (no payrolls); consumer sentiment slips toward cycle lows as uncertainty weighs on outlook.
  • Bitcoin heads for worst week since March as ~$300B in crypto value is erased; slide below the 365-day MA near $102K fuels risk warnings.
  • Hedge funds boost crypto use after Trump’s regulatory push; 55% now hold crypto vs 47% in 2024.
  • China’s Premier Li Qiang projects the economy to surpass $23.9T (¥170T) in five years, implying ~4% average annual growth.
  • Crypto’s push for national trust-bank charters alarms U.S. banks; clash over digital-asset regulation intensifies.

Politics Weekly

  • Thune readies a test vote as a shutdown deal “comes together”; Democrats push a one-year ACA subsidy extension.
  • Rodrigo Paz sworn in, ending Bolivia’s socialist era; signals pro-market pivot and renewed US ties.
  • North Korea calls new U.S. sanctions hostile, says pressure won’t bring Pyongyang to talks; OFAC targeted cybercrime-linked operatives.
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz backs proposed EU tariffs to shield steelmakers and protect jobs, saying Europe must secure domestic steel production.
  • UN Security Council lifts sanctions on Syria’s president ahead of Trump meeting; move aims to aid economic recovery and normalize ties.
  • Trump moves to diversify U.S. critical-mineral supply after hosting five Central Asian leaders; aims to counter China’s rare-earth dominance.
  • Uzbekistan will invest over $100 billion in the U.S. over the next decade, President Trump said.
  • Ukraine battles to stop Russia from seizing Pokrovsk, which would be Moscow’s biggest gain in nearly two years.
  • Trump grants Hungary an exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil purchases, giving Viktor Orbán a major win.
  • Trump says no U.S. officials will attend this month’s G-20 in South Africa, citing claims the country mistreats White Afrikaners.
  • Trump tightens focus on midterms after sweeping Democratic wins; orders GOP map redos, pushes filibuster scrap for voting limits.
  • The Trump administration issued a memo telling states to “immediately undo” any action taken to fully fund November food-aid benefits.
  • China resumes compliant Nexperia chip exports for civilian use; urges EU to advance a resolution to the dispute.

Technology Advancements in the week

  • Amazon’s cloud signs a $38B, 7-year compute deal to power OpenAI; access to hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GB200/GB300 chips.
  • Banks line up a ~$18B project-finance loan for an Oracle-linked AI data-center campus; underscores surging power and compute demand.
  • Caterpillar to more than double gas-turbine capacity to meet AI/data-center power demand amid a record backlog, targeting $30B in services by 2030.
  • Microsoft commits $60B+ to neocloud data-center partners to meet AI compute needs; spending has roughly doubled since early October.
  • Apple nears a ~$1B/year deal to use Google’s 1.2T-parameter AI model to power Siri upgrades.
  • Taiwan exports surge 49.7% y/y in October, fastest since 2010, driven by AI chip demand; US-bound shipments jump 144.3% with 2025 exports ~$600B.

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