Weekly Newsletter October 19 - October 25

Analyst Highlights:

AI financing is becoming a central investment test. Meta’s spending commitments and SpaceX’s reported borrowing increase attention on cash generation and capital access.
Power is the bottleneck. Microsoft’s Essex withdrawal illustrates how power availability can derail AI projects, even when computing demand and commercial partnerships remain strong.
Valuations meet demand. OpenAI’s reduced fundraising target shows valuation sensitivity; NVIDIA’s reported Chinese orders indicate continuing hardware demand, subject to export constraints.
An uneven economy. Strong business activity alongside weak household sentiment suggests an uneven economy; renewed pricing pressure complicates the outlook for monetary easing.
Crypto flows. Reported Bitcoin ETF flows remained positive overall; substantial Thursday–Friday withdrawals show why daily flow headlines need a full-week comparison.
Selective IPO demand. Lycia’s strong debut alongside broader listing delays suggests IPO demand remains selective, making valuation and company-specific evidence central to new offerings.

Lycia Therapeutics (NASDAQ: LYCA) priced 17.64 million shares at $18, raising approximately $317.5 million; shares finished Friday about 67% above the offer price.
Anthropic continued preparing a potential mid-November IPO, Reuters reported, while several AI infrastructure candidates delayed listings; the offering had not priced.
Jio Platforms (India) attracted approximately $77 billion in bids for its $3.2 billion IPO; trading was scheduled to begin October 28.
Rezera (Proposed NASDAQ: RZRA) filed for a U.S. IPO to support its inflammatory-disease pipeline; final share count and price terms remained undisclosed.
Windward Bio Group (Proposed NASDAQ: WWB) filed for a U.S. IPO, adding another clinical-stage biotech to the pipeline; final offering terms remained pending.
Sensing4D AI (Proposed NASDAQ listing) filed for a proposed $35 million U.S. IPO; the company had not selected a ticker or disclosed pricing terms.
iStep Learning (Proposed NYSE American: ISTL) filed to offer four million shares at $4–$5, targeting approximately $18 million at the midpoint; pricing remained pending.

S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68, falling 35.76 points, or 0.47% for the week.
Russell 1000 closed at 4,146.93, falling 15.25 points, or 0.37% for the week.
Russell 2000 closed at 2,775.90, rising 54.53 points, or 2.00% for the week.
Russell 3000 closed at 4,317.27, falling 11.92 points, or 0.28% for the week.
CBOE (VIX) closed at 19.45, falling 0.54 points, or 2.70% for the week.
Dow Jones closed at 52,215.16, rising 212.75 points, or 0.41% for the week.
NASDAQ (IXIC) closed at 25,955.34, falling 184.69 points, or 0.71% for the week.
Bitcoin closed at $80,024.01, falling $1,993.59, or 2.43% for the week.
Ethereum closed at $2,326.92, falling $81.82, or 3.40% for the week.
Solana closed at $101.22, falling $2.80, or 2.69% for the week.
XRP closed at $1.2944, falling $0.0105, or 0.81% for the week.
Gold futures closed at $4,007.90, falling $173.20, or 4.14% for the week.
Silver futures closed at $53.949, falling $3.356, or 5.86% for the week.
WTI crude futures closed at $103.27, rising $4.25, or 4.29% for the week.
Brent crude futures closed at $116.72, rising $6.86, or 6.24% for the week.

S&P Global warned major technology companies may have more AI-linked liabilities than currently disclosed, while indicating no immediate ratings changes.
The flash U.S. composite PMI eased to 57.6, while the output-price gauge reached 59.8, its highest since August 2022.
Michigan consumer sentiment finished October at 48.0, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, underscoring continuing household pressure.
Initial unemployment claims fell 6,000 to 194,000 for the week ended October 17, indicating continued low layoffs despite sluggish hiring.
Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.32% from 7.40%, providing limited relief for prospective homebuyers.
China’s third-quarter GDP expanded 4.5% year over year, exceeding forecasts as export strength offset subdued domestic consumption.
Reported U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows totaled $301.2 million in weekly inflows, despite $773.5 million in combined Thursday–Friday withdrawals.
LSEG agreed to acquire Octus for $3.535 billion in cash, expanding credit intelligence, proprietary data, and financial market analytics.

The U.S. Treasury proposed outbound-investment restrictions covering sensitive technologies, including AI and biotechnology; public comments remained open.
Zelenskiy said U.S. intelligence and warnings about incoming Russian missile attacks had resumed following diplomatic discussions in Oslo.
Trump’s easing of Russia sanctions drew bipartisan congressional opposition, intensifying scrutiny of Washington’s approach to Ukraine and Russian energy exports.
Washington ordered non-emergency government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks on airports and other critical infrastructure.
Iran said messages continued reaching Washington through intermediaries, although negotiations remained stalled and Tehran rejected U.S. demands.
EU ministers favored negotiations with Beijing to curb surging imports, while Brussels considered safeguards for plastics and other manufacturing sectors.
Canada and Ontario announced approximately C$9 billion in support for tariff-hit steel and automotive industries, alongside critical-mineral infrastructure investment.
Lula won Brazil’s presidential runoff, securing a fourth term; rival Flavio Bolsonaro refused to concede, raising concerns over post-election tensions.

Meta introduced non-voting Class C shares and narrowed 2026 capital-spending guidance to $135–145 billion, underscoring the scale of its AI expansion.
Musk said SpaceX secured $40 billion in debt financing for GPUs, with deliveries expected during the first half of 2027.
ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent reportedly ordered over $35 billion of export-compliant NVIDIA graphics cards; production constraints could limit fulfillment.
OpenAI reportedly targeted a $1.25 trillion valuation for a roughly $30 billion funding round, reducing its earlier $1.4 trillion target.
NVIDIA unveiled modular DSX POD AI factories, claiming deployment at prepared sites in as little as 14 days.
Microsoft confirmed withdrawal from one Nscale data-center site in Essex after electricity-grid delays pushed expected power availability into the 2030s.
SpaceX and Tesla formed independent committees to explore a possible merger, Musk said; no transaction terms had been agreed.
Britain outlined approximately £600 million in AI security funding, including a biosecurity laboratory, cyber defenses and additional AI Security Institute support.

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