Weekly Market Recap | June 23 – June 29

Analyst Highlights

• S&P 500 closed at 6,173.07, a record high, capping a $10T rally. The rally was driven by falling inflation, reduced Middle East risk, and tech strength.
• Nasdaq +0.52%, Dow +1.00%, Russell mixed.
• Nvidia neared $4T valuation.
• Huawei is fast becoming China’s strongest AI chip rival to Nvidia, aided by state support and export control pushback. Expect hardware competition to escalate globally.
• Crypto markets turned risk-on:
• Bitcoin +0.71% to $108K
• Ethereum +2.55%
• Solana +1.58%, XRP +1.12%
• Institutional inflows resurging despite U.S. regulatory headwinds.
• IPO Markets Active Again
• 8 listings including Jefferson Capital ($150M), Cantor Equity ($240M), and Oxley Bridge SPAC ($220M) 
• Asian companies led deal flow: Happy City, Julong, Kandal M
• SPACs targeting tech, finance, and TMT.
• Bond markets signal caution ahead of June jobs data. Yields dipped, reflecting September cut expectations. Institutional investors are hedging against soft labor print and valuation risk.
• Geopolitics & Trade Risks Linger:
• Trump warns of ending U.S.–Canada deal over digital tax
• Iran vows retaliation despite ceasefire talks
• Tariff deadline (July 9) approaches with few concrete deals sealed.
• India, EU still negotiating terms under pressure.

IPO’s in the week

• Happy City Holdings Ltd (HCHL, Nasdaq Capital) – A Hong Kong-based restaurant operator behind the “Thai Pot” and “Gyu! Gyu! Shabu Shabu” brands went public on June 24, offering 1.1 million shares at $5.00, raising $5.5 million. With three all-you-can-eat hotpot locations and 22.8% YoY revenue growth (to $8.3M in FY2024), the company is rebounding from pandemic-era restrictions. Offices are based in Hong Kong and Singapore. 
• Oxley Bridge Acquisition Ltd (OBAWU, Nasdaq Global) – A Cayman Islands-incorporated SPAC targeting global consumer and tech companies (excluding China) debuted on June 25, offering 22 million shares at $10.00, raising $220 million. Led by CEO Jonathan Lin, the firm aims to acquire companies with disruptive growth potential in Asia’s broader markets. The team is based between Hong Kong and Vancouver. 
• LightWave Acquisition Corp. (LWACU, Nasdaq Global) – A Cayman Islands-based SPAC led by Robert Bennett went public on June 25, offering 18.75 million shares at $10.00, raising $187.5 million. Focused on the tech sector, the firm plans to leverage its leadership’s cross-border capital markets experience to identify targets across various industries. Offices are located in Dallas and Menlo Park.
• Kandal M Venture Limited (FMFC, Nasdaq Capital) – A contract manufacturer of affordable luxury leather goods raised $8 million on June 25, offering 2 million shares at $4.00. Based in Asia, the company plans to expand its customer base, boost production capacity, and establish a design and development center. The IPO was underwritten by Dominari Securities and Revere Securities.
• Julong Holding Ltd (JLHL, Nasdaq Capital) – A China-based provider of intelligent security and infrastructure systems raised $5 million on June 26, offering 1.25 million shares at $4.00. The firm delivers smart engineering and maintenance solutions to public utilities and commercial projects across China.
• Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP, Nasdaq Global Select) – A Minneapolis-based debt purchaser and manager of charged-off consumer accounts raised $150 million on June 26, offering 10 million shares at $15.00. Operating across the U.S., Canada, UK, and Latin America, the firm specializes in nonperforming loan recovery and insolvency account management.
• Cantor Equity Partners III, Inc. (CAEP, Nasdaq Global) – A New York-based SPAC affiliated with Cantor Fitzgerald raised $240 million on June 26, offering 24 million shares at $10.00. The firm plans to target acquisitions across financial services, healthcare, real estate, and tech-related sectors.
• Yorkville Acquisition (YORKU, Nasdaq) – A TMT-focused SPAC led by former T-Mobile executive Kevin McGurn raised $150 million on June 27, offering 15 million units at $10.00. Each unit includes one share and one-third of a warrant exercisable at $11.50. The SPAC plans to pursue targets in telecom, media, and technology.
• FIGX Capital Acquisition Corp. (FIGXU, Nasdaq Global) – A SPAC focused on the financial services sector raised $131 million on June 27, offering 13.1 million shares at $10.00. Led by CEO Louis Gerken, the firm aims to acquire asset managers with global expansion potential and diversified fund strategies.

Markets Weekly

1. S&P 500 closed at 6,173.07, gaining 32.05 points or +0.52% for the week.
2. Russell 1000 (IWB) closed at 337.47, up 1.24 points or +0.37% for the week.
3. Russell 2000 closed at 2,172.53, up 0.42 points or +0.02% for the week.
4. Russell 3000 closed at 3,508.54, gaining +16.94 points or +0.49% for the week.
5. CBOE closed at 16.32, down -0.27 points or -1.63% for the week.
6. Dow closed at 43,819.27, gaining +432.47 points or +1.00% for the week.
7. Nasdaq closed at 20,273.46, gaining +105 pts (+0.52%) for the week.
8. Bitcoin closed at $108,151, up +763 pts (+0.71%) this week.
9. Ethereum closed at $2,499, up +62 pts (+2.55%) this week.
10. Solana closed at $153.14, up +2.38 pts (+1.58%) this week.
11. XRP closed at $2.2086, up +0.0245 pts (+1.12%) this week.
12. Gold closed at $3,278.90, down -8.70 pts (-0.26%) this week.
13. Silver (Sep 25) closed at $35.98, down -0.39 pts (-1.07%) this week.
14. WTI closed at $64.79, down -0.73 pts (-1.11%) this week.
15. Brent Crude closed at $67.11, down -0.66 pts (-0.97%) this week.

• Huawei is emerging as a potential rival to Nvidia in AI chips, with deep government ties and growing global ambition. Analysts view it as China’s most powerful tech player.
• S&P 500 closed at a record 6,170 after a $10T rally, boosted by cooling inflation and easing geopolitical risks. Nvidia neared a $4T valuation.
• Markets posted their strongest cross-asset rally in over a year as investors shrugged off economic risks. Optimism surged despite weak jobs data and fading Fed cut hopes.
• Torrent Pharma to buy KKR’s 46.4% stake in JB Pharma for $1.4B, triggering an open offer. The deal delivers a 5x return for KKR.
• Bond traders await June jobs data for clues on Fed rate cuts, with a September move largely priced in. Yields near two-month lows as markets brace for a soft labor print.
• Institutional investors turn cautious for H2 2025, citing risks like tariffs, Fed uncertainty, and high valuations. Many expect more volatility and limited equity upside.
• As Middle East tensions ease, stocks rally but options markets show lingering caution. Traders still hedge against oil swings and macro shocks despite near-term optimism.
• RBI drained $10B in excess liquidity to lift short-term borrowing costs closer to its 5.5% policy rate. Liquidity still remains in surplus; may need further tightening.
• European stocks had their best week since May, rising 1.3%, on optimism over an EU-US trade deal.
• Big IPOs expected as late-stage private firms bulk up via secondary deals — investor demand for AI, robotics & defense tech driving valuations.
• Hong Kong share sales hit $33B in H1, a 6x surge led by BYD & Xiaomi — city set to become world’s 2nd largest equity market for 2025.
• Americans are selling gold bars and coins to cash in on the rally, while Asian buyers continue loading up due to currency and geopolitical risks.
• Russia resumes LNG exports via Arctic LNG 2 using a shadow fleet, but key risk remains: finding buyers willing to defy Western sanctions.
• India’s $5.4T stock market is cooling as high valuations, slowing earnings, and limited AI exposure reduce investor appeal.
• A new ETF (GRFT) aims to track companies with political connections, letting retail investors bet on Washington insider ties.

Politics Weekly

• Senate Republicans clash on Medicaid cuts and ballooning deficits as they push to pass Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spending package before July 4.
• A Democratic resolution requiring congressional approval for further Iran strikes failed 47–53, as GOP defends Trump’s authority after nuclear site attacks.
• Tensions flare as Trump warns of terminating U.S.–Canada trade deal after PM Mark Carney proceeds with a 3% digital services tax targeting U.S. tech firms.
• Ambassador Tom Barrack says a resolution to the F-35 standoff is possible by year-end, as U.S. and Turkey seek a “fresh start” in defense cooperation.
• At least 16 killed in Kenya as anti-tax protests erupt. Public anger grows over police violence, corruption, and rising living costs.
• China pledged to fast-track critical mineral exports to Serbia, aiding Stellantis’ EV production. President Xi assured support following a direct request from Belgrade.
• Trump says a buyer for TikTok’s U.S. operations has been found but won’t name it yet. Deadline for ByteDance to divest extended again amid U.S.–China trade tensions.
• CBO says Trump’s tax bill would add $3.3 trillion to deficits over 10 years. GOP uses unconventional scoring to offset $4.5 trillion in proposed tax cuts.
• Trump says Iran may get sanctions relief if it “can be peaceful,” following U.S. strikes on nuclear sites. UN inspectors dispute extent of damage to Iran’s program.
• Trump says he doesn’t expect to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, despite unfinished deals. Treasury signals talks with key partners may continue into late summer.
• With the July 9 tariff deadline near, Trump’s trade deals may fall short of sweeping reform. Most agreements will cover limited issues, with deeper terms left unresolved.
• Elon Musk criticized Trump’s tax bill for cutting EV and clean energy credits, calling it “incredibly destructive.” The bill ends the $7,500 EV credit after September 30.
• India extended trade talks in Washington as both sides push to finalize a deal before the July 9 tariff deadline. Key sticking points include GM crops and reciprocal tariffs.
• Iran warned the U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Israel may not hold, vowing retaliation if attacked again. Tensions remain high after joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on nuclear sites.
• Putin expands Russia’s secrecy law to cover trade, science, and mobilization. Leaks could now lead to up to eight years in prison.
• Texas oil tycoon Ben Brigham and activist Alex Epstein are urging Republicans to cut carbon capture tax credits, calling them wasteful gifts to Big Oil.

Technology Advancements in the week

• TSMC is injecting $10B into its overseas unit to shift FX exposure and lower hedging costs amid Taiwan dollar strength.
• Google launched Gemini CLI, an AI coding tool that simplifies terminal tasks using natural language, aiming to rival OpenAI and Anthropic offerings.
• Klarna founder’s VC firm Norrsken pledges €300M to AI startups solving climate challenges, joining its accelerator and early-stage funds.
• SoftBank backs Sceye with $15M to launch stratospheric platforms for climate monitoring and rural connectivity via helium airships.
• China’s tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent are accelerating M&A with state support, as Beijing encourages consolidation in AI and tech to build national champions.
• Salesforce CEO says AI now handles 30–50% of internal tasks like engineering and support, reducing hiring needs and signaling broader tech workforce shifts.
•  Meta is in talks to acquire voice AI startup PlayAI to enhance its assistant tech and smartglasses, aligning with Zuckerberg’s aggressive AI talent strategy.
• Google Cloud hired Oracle’s ex-CFO Kobi Bar-Nathan to lead cloud finance, deepening the rivalry as both firms push into AI cloud services.
• China’s $50B Big Fund III shifts focus to local chip tools and lithography tech to bypass U.S. curbs and close key gaps.

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