Weekly Market Recap | Oct 20 – Oct 26

Analyst Highlights

• Fed cut path is back on the table: Core inflation cooled to 0.2% m/m, housing pressure eased, and markets are openly pricing continued easing from the Fed.
• Risk appetite is broadening: S&P 500 (+1.52%), Dow (+1.07%), Russell 1000 (+1.45%), and even Russell 2000 (+0.54%) all finished higher, while the VIX fell to 16.37 (-10.2%), signaling bullish positioning.
• Energy and geopolitics are colliding: Crude rallied (WTI $61.87, +7.56%; Brent $66.34, +8.73%) as traders priced in U.S. sanctions on Russian producers, while metals sold off hard (Gold -5.61%, Silver -5.77%) on lower fear.
• AI narrative is at an inflection point: Nvidia faces rare public pushback (a Street “sell” and a $100 downside target), just as hyperscalers have to justify record AI capex on earnings calls. The market is now demanding real revenue, not just “AI story.”
• China is exporting autonomy and hardware scale: Robotaxi operators are commercializing in the Gulf and Southeast Asia, and Xiaomi forced a domestic flagship phone arms race with 7,500mAh batteries and ~$750 price points — signaling China intends to lead in physical AI-enabled systems, not just software.
• Liquidity + security are converging: JPMorgan will accept Bitcoin and Ether as loan collateral for institutions, while OpenAI-backed Valthos is building AI for bio-threat defense. The line between financial infrastructure, national security, and frontier tech is getting thinner.

IPO’s in the week

• LaFayette Acquisition Corp. (LAFAU, Nasdaq Global) — Cayman Islands SPAC targeting U.S. deals across energy, fintech, and industrial tech — priced its IPO on Oct 24, 2025 at $10.00 for 10.0M shares, raising $100.0M.
• Harvard Ave Acquisition Corp (HAVAU, Nasdaq Global) — Cayman Islands SPAC led from Seoul, pursuing a merger in any sector or geography — priced its IPO on Oct 23, 2025 at $10.00 for 14.5M shares, raising $145.0M.
• Miluna Acquisition Corp (MMTXU, Nasdaq Global) — Cayman Islands SPAC formed in June 2025 to acquire a non-PRC target — priced its IPO on Oct 23, 2025 at $10.00 for 6.0M shares, raising $60.0M.
• Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd. (AGCC, Nasdaq Capital) — Cayman/Taiwan whisky importer, bottler, and distributor for Asia-Pacific nightlife and B2B clients — priced its IPO on Oct 22, 2025 at $4.00 for 1.75M shares, raising $7.0M.
• Calisa Acquisition Corp (ALISU, Nasdaq Global) — Cayman Islands SPAC targeting private companies in Asia (excluding PRC VIE structures) — priced its IPO on Oct 22, 2025 at $10.00 for 6.0M shares, raising $60.0M.
• Texxon Holding Ltd (NPT, Nasdaq Capital) — Cayman holding company for a China-based supply chain platform serving plastics/chemicals SMEs — priced its IPO on Oct 22, 2025 at $5.00 for 1.9M shares, raising $9.5M.
• AMBITIONS ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT CO. L.L.C (AHMA, Nasdaq Capital) — UAE-based MICE and corporate travel/events provider — priced its IPO on Oct 21, 2025 at $4.00 for 1.5M shares, raising $6.0M.
• BGIN BLOCKCHAIN Ltd (BGIN, Nasdaq Global) — Singapore crypto infrastructure firm selling in-house ASIC miners and running mining pools in the U.S. — priced its IPO on Oct 21, 2025 at $6.00 for 5.0M shares, raising $30.0M.
• Charming Medical Ltd (MCTA, Nasdaq Capital) — Hong Kong TCM-inspired women’s wellness and postpartum care brand (Beauty Lab) — priced its IPO on Oct 21, 2025 at $4.00 for 1.6M shares, raising $6.4M.

Markets Weekly

1. S&P 500 closed at 6,791.69, up 101.64 points and 1.52% for the week.
2. Russell 1000 (IWB) closed at 371.57, up 5.30 points and 1.45% for the week.
3. Russell 2000 closed at 2,513.47, up 13.56 points and 0.54% for the week.
4. Russell 3000 closed at 3,863.16, up 31.01 points and 0.81% for the week.
5. Cboe (VIX) closed at 16.37, down 1.86 points and 10.2% for the week.
6. Dow Jones (DJI) closed at 47,207.12, up 500.54 points and 1.07% for the week.
7. Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,204.87, up 214.33 points and 0.93% for the week.
8. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed at $114,460.83, up $3,871.90 and 3.5% for the week.
9. Ethereum (ETH/USD) closed at $4,173.73, up $192.97 and 4.9% for the week.
10. Solana (SOL/USD) closed at $200.53, up $6.49 and 3.35% for the week.
11. XRP (XRP/USD) closed at $2.6539, up $0.1605 and 6.44% for the week.
12. Gold closed at $4,093.20, down $243.20 and 5.61% for the week.
13. Silver closed at $48.17, down $2.95 and 5.77% for the week.
14. WTI Crude closed at $61.87, up $4.35 and 7.56% for the week.
15. Brent Crude closed at $66.34, up $5.33 and 8.73% for the week.

• Vanguard is pivoting into active management, launching its first junk-bond fund and filing stock-picking ETFs. The $9T firm is chasing demand as active ETFs gain share.
• Nvidia’s only major Wall Street bear, Jay Goldberg, says the AI trade is a bubble and keeps a rare “sell” call with a $100 target, warning there’s more downside than upside.
• Gold dropped 6.3% this week to about $4,113/oz, its worst slide since 2013, and buyers jumped in from Asia to the US treating it as a buying opportunity.
• Big Tech — Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple — reports this week, and investors want proof that record AI spending will pay off, with ~25% of the S&P 500 riding on their guidance.
• WTI crude held near $61 a barrel, up 7% on the week, as traders weighed whether new US sanctions on Russia’s top producers will offset a looming supply glut.
• Treasury yields climbed after US manufacturing and services data showed the economy is still firm, erasing most of the post-inflation bond rally.
• US core inflation rose just 0.2% in September, the slowest in three months as shelter cooled. The soft CPI print is strengthening bets on more Fed rate cuts.
• US stocks hit fresh highs after cooler inflation, with the S&P 500 rallying as traders bet the Fed can start cutting rates and keep corporate earnings supported.
• JPMorgan will let institutional clients use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans by year-end, relying on a third-party custodian to safeguard the tokens.

Politics Weekly

• US and China signaled a tariff truce after Malaysia talks, saying Trump and Xi are close to a deal on export controls, fentanyl, shipping fees, and rare earths to stabilize trade.
• US President Donald Trump offered tariff exemptions to Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia in new ASEAN trade deals. 
• President Donald Trump said he will raise tariffs on Canada by an additional 10% after Ontario aired an anti-tariff ad using Ronald Reagan, calling it a “hostile act.”
• President Donald Trump announced a Thailand–Cambodia border agreement in Kuala Lumpur, saying both sides will ease the dispute, release prisoners, and start demining.
• President Trump and Brazil’s President Lula moved to restart US–Brazil trade talks, with Trump signaling he could roll back recent tariffs on Brazil.
• Top Democrats are positioning for 2028, with Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom signaling interest in running to succeed President Donald Trump.
• China will make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, signaling easing US–China tensions and relief for US farmers.
• The US is seeking to expand its strategic relationship with Pakistan, but those ties won’t come at the expense of relations with India, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
• Lithuania said two Russian fighter jets briefly crossed its airspace from Kaliningrad, triggering a NATO scramble and a warning that Europe must harden its air defenses.
• EU leaders delayed a decision on using frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine after Belgium objected to liability risk, pushing the debate to December.
• France’s Socialist Party is prepared to bring down the government if there is no significant increase in taxation in next year’s budget.
• Mounting Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia are pushing President Vladimir Putin to call up more troops to protect key infrastructure.
• President Donald Trump said he’s open to meeting North Korea’s Kim Jong Un during his Asia trip if Kim reaches out.
• Russia said it successfully tested a new nuclear-powered cruise missile that President Vladimir Putin claims can fly at least 14,000 kilometers.

Technology Advancements in the week

• Samsung and Google launched the Galaxy XR mixed-reality headset at $1,800, about half Apple’s $3,499 Vision Pro, underscoring the race toward mainstream AR wearables.
• China’s phone makers are chasing Xiaomi, not Apple: Xiaomi’s 17 Pro Max sparked ~$750 Android flagships with 7,500mAh batteries — ~1.5× iPhone capacity.
• China’s robotaxi firms (Baidu, WeRide, Pony.ai) are rolling out driverless ride-hailing in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, and targeting Europe, challenging Waymo’s global lead.
• Nintendo is targeting up to 25 million Switch 2 units by March 2026 — far above ~17.6M forecasts — positioning for record first-year console sales.
• OpenAI, Founders Fund, and Lux Capital backed Valthos with $30M to build AI tools that detect engineered bio threats and help stop AI-enabled bioweapon attacks.

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