Analyst Highlights
- Narrow leadership risk: Mega-cap/AI still drive returns; R2K -1.63% underperforms—watch for breadth/rotation before year-end.
- Macro setup: Fed signaling keeps Dec cut at ~50/50; higher real yields + rich multiples argue for “buy dips, not rips.”
- USD strength: Broad dollar bid (BBDXY +1.7% in Oct) tightens global financial conditions—headwind for EMs/commodities ex-gold.
- US–China truce = pause, not peace: One-year de-escalation (rare earths/licensing, tariff relief) lowers tail risk short-term but structural rivalry persists.
- Commodities mixed: Russia refined exports slump to war-time lows; oil soft; gold supported by haven/CBB buying, but China’s VAT change may temper local retail demand.
- AI capex + financing: Big Tech pushing off-balance-sheet/SPV structures (Meta ~$60B) while Nvidia keeps seeding startups—ups the cycle’s power and leverage/opacity risk.
IPO’s in the week
- MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT, Nasdaq Global Select) — clinical-stage biopharma focused on CNS disorders — priced its IPO on Oct 27, 2025 at $17.00 for 14.75M shares, raising ~$250.8M to fund Phase 2 trials (schizophrenia & Alzheimer’s disease psychosis) and advance ASD/pipeline programs.
- Apex Treasury Corp (APXTU, Nasdaq Global) — SPAC targeting blockchain/digital assets, crypto treasury, AI, B2B software, data services, renewable energy, and build-to-rent real estate — priced its IPO on Oct 28, 2025 at $10.00 for 30.0M units, raising $300.0M to pursue an initial business combination.
- Insight Digital Partners II (DYORU, Nasdaq Global) — SPAC targeting the digital-economy backbone (payment gateways, stablecoins, exchanges, miners, HPC/energy, crypto treasury) — priced its IPO on Oct 29, 2025 at $10.00 for 15.0M units, raising $150.0M to pursue an initial business combination.
- Navan, Inc. (NAVN, Nasdaq Global Select) — AI-powered end-to-end business travel & expense management platform — priced its IPO on Oct 30, 2025 at $25.00 for ~36.9M shares, raising ~$923.1M to scale global T&E adoption and expand its unified AI platform across enterprises.
- Dynamix Corp III (DNMXU, Nasdaq Global) — SPAC targeting energy, power, and digital-assets infrastructure — priced its IPO on Oct 30, 2025 at $10.00 for 17.5M units, raising $175.0M to pursue an initial business combination.
- Viking Acquisition Corp. I (VACI.U, NYSE) — SPAC with a broad mandate — priced its IPO on Oct 30, 2025 at $10.00 for 20.0M units, raising $200.0M; units began trading Oct 31, 2025, each consisting of 1 Class A share and 1/3 warrant (exercise $11.50).
- Nomadar Corp. (NOMA, Nasdaq Capital) — innovation arm of Cádiz CF spanning athlete training, stadium events, and the Mágico González brand — filed for a direct listing of 13,268,718 shareholder shares (pricing TBD).
- Boyd Group Services Inc. (BGSI, NYSE/TSX: BYD) — North American collision-repair operator — priced its U.S. IPO at $141.00 for ~5.53M shares, raising ~$780M; began NYSE trading Oct 31, 2025, with proceeds to partially fund the Joe Hudson’s Collision Center acquisition and for general purposes.
Markets Weekly
- S&P 500 closed at 6,840.20, down 34.96 points (-0.51%) for the week.
- Russell 1000 (IWB) closed at 373.71, down 2.20 points (-0.58%) for the week.
- Russell 2000 closed at 2,479.38, down 41.06 points (-1.63%) for the week.
- Russell 3000 closed at 3,881.93, down 25.62 points (-0.66%) for the week.
- CBOE (VIX) closed at 17.44, up 1.65 points (~10%) for the week.
- Dow Jones closed at 47,562.87, up 18 points (+0.04%) for the week.
- Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,724.96, down -67 points (-0.28%) for the week.
- Bitcoin closed at $110,154, down 3,965 pts (-3.5%) for the week.
- Ethereum closed at $3,866.63, down $253.49 (-6.15%) for the week.
- Solana closed at $185.83, down $12.91 (-6.5%) for the week.
- XRP closed at $2.513, down $0.122 (-4.6%) for the week.
- Gold closed at $3,996.50, down $5.40 (-0.1%) for the week.
- Silver closed at $48.16, up $1.60 (+3.4%) for the week.
- WTI Crude closed at $60.98, down $0.33 (-0.5%) for the week.
- Brent Crude closed at $65.07, down $0.55 (-0.8%) for the week.
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq extend historic winning streaks, with AI megacaps powering a ~40% surge from April lows.
- Market breadth stays narrow as gains concentrate in AI leaders; a Magnificent Seven gauge +1.2%.
- Dollar logs its second-best month of 2025 as BBDXY +1.7% in October, while euro, pound, yen sag on domestic woes amid murky US data.
- Gold hovers near $4,000/oz as traders weigh the one-year US-China trade truce that calms tensions short-term but not long-term competition.
- US 10-year yield ends the week around 4.09% as traders pare December cut bets, with swaps implying roughly 50/50 odds.
- Russia’s refined fuel exports slump to lows as refinery outages and tighter sanctions bite; seaborne shipments averaged 1.89 mb/d in Oct’s first 26 days.
- European stocks rose 2.5% in October, marking a fourth straight monthly gain for the Stoxx 600.
- China scraps the gold VAT offset for retailers, ending a long-standing tax break; applies to bars/ingots and jewelry, likely lifting consumer prices.
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) cash pile hits $381.7B with operating earnings +34%; fifth straight quarter no buybacks.
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong triggers “mention market” payouts by intentionally saying wagered words on earnings call, exposing prediction-market manipulation risks.
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong triggers “mention market” payouts by intentionally saying wagered words on earnings call, exposing prediction-market manipulation risks.
- Global regulators are considering revising next-year bank crypto rules amid stablecoin growth, with the US pushing changes.
- Nvidia Corp. became the first company to have a market value of $5 trillion and is the primary driver of the market’s gains since the start of 2023.
Politics Weekly
- US, China to set up direct military hotlines after Trump–Xi summit and trade truce, to deconflict incidents; details to be finalized.
- China to suspend added export curbs; general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite.
- US pauses new China tariffs, halts planned 100% tariff; extends Section 301 exclusions to Nov 10, 2026.
- China to resume U.S. soybean buys: 12Mt this season; minimum 25Mt annually for three years.
- Nexperia’s China facilities cleared to resume shipments, easing chip-supply risks.
- Fentanyl-related tariff cut to 10%, contingent on China’s crackdown. Most measures are time-limited (~1 year); core disputes are unresolved.
- US signs new, market-opening trade agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia to strengthen economic ties and counterbalance Beijing’s influence.
- Washington inks preliminary deal frameworks with Thailand and Vietnam, laying groundwork for broader trade and investment cooperation.
- The US and India finalize a 10-year defense agreement, deepening strategic alignment and military interoperability.
- Trump reassures South Korea on defense commitments, including support for Seoul’s nuclear-powered submarine request.
- US signals no dilution of its Taiwan commitment despite the Xi summit, maintaining deterrence messaging.
- France’s National Assembly rejects wealth-tax proposals, including the 2% “Zucman” levy on fortunes above €100m.
- US allies warn the Trump–Xi meeting now becomes the first real test of how tough Trump will get on Russia and its oil flows.
- China and South Korea agree to expand cultural exchanges, signaling potential easing of Beijing’s unofficial K-content curbs after years of limits.
- UK’s Reeves eyes a bolder Nov 26 budget after a £20B OBR hit, with simpler taxes and “fair-share” rises.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says no US nuclear test blasts are planned for now, with any testing stopping short of live warhead detonations.
- Trump denies reports he’s planning strikes on Venezuela, telling reporters aboard Air Force One he isn’t considering military action.
Technology Advancements in the week
- Microsoft’s Azure ‘Front Door’ glitch triggered a global cloud outage, cascading into auth, security tools, databases and Copilot features for major firms.
- YouTube will roll out AI “super resolution” upscaling to sharpen sub-1080p uploads across TV, web, and mobile, with 4K upscaling coming soon.
- Nvidia plans up to $1B in AI startup Poolside, part of a $2B raise at a ~$12B valuation—underscoring Nvidia’s role seeding the AI ecosystem.
- Meta, xAI use SPVs/private credit to fund AI data centers (Meta ~$60B, half off balance sheet) as banks eye ~$800B private-credit needs by 2028.
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