Analyst Highlights
- Fed path: With a 25 bp cut fully priced, CPI is the swing factor; core ≥0.4% m/m risks a risk-off snapback.
- Oil downside hedging: Surge in Dec Brent $55/$60 puts (OI ≈120M bbl) flags rising odds of sub-$60 oil by year-end.
- Japan watch: Ishiba exit → baseline steeper JGB curve and softer JPY until successor’s fiscal stance is clear.
- Crypto flows: Nasdaq shareholder-approval requirement slows equity-funded token buys; bias BTC/ETH over high-beta alts near term.
- AI capex super-cycle: OpenAI spend to ~$115B through 2029 plus mega-debt deals ($26B Meta, $38B Oracle) underscore structural demand for compute/power.
- Gold bid: Gold miners index at record as safe-haven demand builds; supports the defensive barbell with quality growth.
IPO’s in the week
- Fitness Champs Holdings Ltd (FCHL, Nasdaq Capital) — Singapore-based sports education provider specializing in swimming lessons — priced its IPO on Sept 4, 2025, selling 3.75M shares at $4.00 to raise $15.0M; proceeds aimed at expanding programs in Singapore and adding new sports offerings (incl. pickleball).
- GSR IV Acquisition Corp. (GSRFU, Nasdaq Global) — Cayman Islands–incorporated SPAC led by Gus Garcia & Lewis Silberman — priced on Sept 4, 2025, selling 20.0M units at $10.00 to raise $200.0M; proceeds to pursue a business combination in any sector, leveraging a data-driven sourcing approach and the team’s SPAC track record.
- Spring Valley Acquisition Corp. III (SVACU, Nasdaq Global) — SPAC led by Christopher Sorrells targeting natural resources & decarbonization sectors — priced on Sept 4, 2025, selling 20.0M units at $10.00 to raise $200.0M for a future business combination.
Markets Weekly
- S&P 500 closed at 6,481.50, down 20.58 points and 0.32% for the week.
- Russell 1000 (IWB) closed at 356.04, down 0.79 points and 0.22% for the week.
- Russell 2000 closed at 2,391.05, up 11.44 points and 0.48% for the week.
- Russell 3000 closed at 3,695.84, down 7.80 points and 0.21% for the week.
- CBOE (VIX) closed at 15.18, down 0.12 points and 0.78% for the week.
- Dow Jones closed at 45,400.86, down 220.44 points and 0.48% for the week.
- NASDAQ Composite closed at 21,700.39, down 7.31 points and 0.03% for the week.
- Bitcoin (BTC-USD) closed at 111,182.11, up 1,931.52 and 1.77% for the week.
- Ethereum (ETH-USD) closed at 4,292.14, down 22.33 and 0.52% for the week.
- Solana (SOL-USD) closed at 204.66, up 7.55 and 3.83% for the week.
- XRP (XRP-USD) closed at 2.87, up 0.11 and 4.10% for the week.
- Gold closed at 3,653.30, up 103.90 and 2.93% for the week.
- Silver closed at 41.074, up 0.00 and 0.01% for the week.
- WTI Crude closed at $61.87, up 0.00 and 0.00% for the week.
- Brent Crude (BZ=F) closed at $65.11, down $0.39 and 0.60% for the week.
- August nonfarm payrolls +22K; unemployment 4.3%, signaling a cooling labor market and lifting rate-cut expectations.
- Investors are eagerly awaiting the August CPI reading, seen as a key determinant for whether the Fed will deliver a September rate cut as markets fully expect.
- Analysts expect Japan’s ultra-long JGBs to fall and the yen to weaken at Monday’s open after PM Ishiba’s resignation; leadership uncertainty points to a steeper curve.
- Treasuries rally into a data-heavy week with a 25 bp September Fed cut fully priced; BLS jobs revisions and PPI/CPI will test whether yields can push lower.
- Equities steady as traders bet on a smooth rate-cut path into Thursday’s CPI (core ~0.3% m/m); a hot surprise could unwind dovish bets and spark volatility.
- OPEC+ agreed in principle to lift October output by ~137,000 b/d, beginning the return of 1.66 mb/d of prior cuts as the group prioritizes market share.
- Nasdaq requiring shareholder approval for share-funded token purchases by some crypto-treasury firms, curbing equity-funded demand and weighing on related tokens.
- Europe’s long bonds rebounded as investors locked in multi-decade-high yields; 30-yr UK/France yields eased after earlier fiscal/political-driven spikes.
- U.S. stocks slipped as Nvidia −2.7% and megacaps weighed; S&P 500 −0.3% from a record despite stronger rate-cut odds.
- Gold miners hit a new record as safe-haven demand rises; NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index closed at $1,856.98, its first peak since 2011.
- Options traders ramped Dec Brent $55/$60 puts (open interest ≈120M bbl) as hedges for further OPEC+ supply—betting Brent could slip below $60 by year-end.
- China will allow Russian energy firms to issue onshore RMB “panda bonds,” reopening its domestic bond market to them for the first time since 2017.
Politics Weekly
- Federal agents detained 475 workers at Hyundai’s $7.6B Georgia EV-battery site; construction halted amid a months-long employment probe.
- PM Shigeru Ishiba said he will step down after election setbacks; he’ll remain in office until a successor is chosen.
- South Korea concluded talks with the U.S. to repatriate nationals detained in the Hyundai Georgia raid; a charter flight will depart once administrative steps are complete.
- Xi Jinping pledged deeper ties with North Korea in a Sept 3 Beijing meeting with Kim Jong Un, committing to stronger high-level exchanges and strategic coordination.
- India will keep buying Russian oil, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, defying U.S. demands; Delhi is preparing relief for firms hit by doubled U.S. tariffs.
- Trump family’s crypto ventures — World Liberty Financial & American Bitcoin — added about $1.3B to their wealth in recent weeks, boosting the estimated fortune to $7.7B.
- President Donald Trump said he will not attend November’s G-20 summit in Johannesburg; Vice President JD Vance will represent the U.S. instead.
- Trump said there’s “nothing to worry about” in U.S.–India ties despite 50% tariffs; Modi echoed the upbeat tone.
- Anutin Charnvirakul took office as Thailand’s prime minister after royal endorsement; he’ll lead a coalition and plans elections within four months.
- Lula said Brazil won’t allow foreign interference and criticized politicians who encourage “attacks” on the nation; remarks came on the eve of Independence Day.
- US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said the US and EU are weighing new sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russia, arguing economic pressure could bring Putin to talks.
- A rare Xi–Putin–Modi huddle in China signaled warmer alignment and potential deeper economic coordination.
- Russia, China and Mongolia advanced the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, signing documents to move the 50 bcm/yr project forward.
- Xi met Kim Jong Un in Beijing on Sept 3, pledging deeper ties and closer coordination.
Technology Advancements in the week
- Galaxy Digital’s Michael Novogratz says AI agents will become the biggest users of USD stablecoins, driving an on-chain payments surge within 1–5 years.
- Apple plans AI web search (“World Knowledge Answers”) inside Siri as early as spring, rivaling OpenAI/Perplexity; evaluating a Google model.
- DeepSeek is prepping an agentic AI capable of multi-step actions, targeting an end-2025 release to rival OpenAI.
- Stripe & Paradigm are incubating Tempo, a stablecoin payments blockchain with partners incl. Shopify and major banks.
- Intel says 2026 is the pivotal checkpoint to validate 14A; capacity build will require external customer commitments.
- JPMorgan & MUFG to lead ~$38B debt for Oracle-linked data centers in TX/WI (built by Vantage) to power OpenAI.
- Apple will unveil the iPhone 17 lineup (incl. ultrathin 17 Air), plus Watch Series 11/Ultra 3/SE and AirPods Pro 3.
- DeepSeek’s low-cost open models are reshaping AI competition; OpenAI released its first open model in six years as the U.S. urges more open-source.
- Meta lined up $26B off-balance-sheet debt for its Louisiana “Hyperion” data center under a 20-year lease.
- OpenAI told investors it projects spending through 2029 to reach ~$115B (≈$80B higher), as it builds in-house chips and data centers.
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