Analyst Highlights
- Fed path: With a 25 bp cut fully priced, CPI is the swing factor; core ≥0.4% m/m risks a risk-off snapback.
- Oil downside hedging: Surge in Dec Brent $55/$60 puts (OI ≈120M bbl) flags rising odds of sub-$60 oil by year-end.
- Japan watch: Ishiba exit → baseline steeper JGB curve and softer JPY until the successor’s fiscal stance is clear.
- Crypto flows: Nasdaq shareholder-approval requirement slows equity-funded token buys; bias BTC/ETH over high-beta alts near term.
- AI capex super-cycle: OpenAI spend ~$115B through 2029 plus mega-debt deals ($26B Meta, $38B Oracle) underscore structural demand for compute/power.
- Gold bid: Gold miners index at record as safe-haven demand builds; supports the defensive barbell with quality growth.
IPO’s in the week
- Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB, Nasdaq Global) – Drive-thru coffee chain. Sept 12, 2025: 14,705,882 shares at $20.00 to raise $294.1M. Proceeds for unit growth, roasting ops, and digital platform.
- Gemini Space Station (GEMI, Nasdaq) – Space-focused company. Sept 12, 2025: 16,666,667 shares at $28.00 to raise $466.7M. General corporate purposes and growth.
- Legence (LGN, Nasdaq) – Energy efficiency & building services provider. Sept 12, 2025: 26,000,000 shares at $28.00 to raise $728.0M. Debt paydown and expansion initiatives.
- OTG Acquisition I (OTGAU, Nasdaq) – SPAC (blank-check company). Sept 12, 2025: 20,000,000 units at $10.00 to raise $200.0M. To pursue a future business combination.
- Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA, NYSE) – Transit tech platform for on-demand and public mobility. Sept 12, 2025: 10,714,285 shares at $46.00 to raise $492.9M. Growth, R&D, and working capital.
- Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR, Nasdaq) – Digital lending & blockchain infrastructure firm. Sept 11, 2025: 31,500,000 shares at $25.00 to raise $787.5M. Platform expansion and general purposes.
- LB Pharmaceuticals (LBRX, Nasdaq) – Clinical-stage biopharma (neuropsychiatric disorders). Sept 11, 2025: 16,666,667 shares at $15.00 to raise $250.0M. Clinical development and working capital.
- Klarna Group (KLAR, NYSE) – Global BNPL & payments fintech. Sept 10, 2025: 34,311,274 shares at $40.00 to raise $1.372B. Balance sheet and growth investments.
- Trailblazer Acquisition (BLZRU, Nasdaq) – SPAC (blank-check company). Sept 10, 2025: 20,000,000 units at $10.00 to raise $200.0M. To pursue a future acquisition.
- Talon Capital (TLNCU, Nasdaq) – SPAC (blank-check company). Sept 9, 2025: 22,500,000 units at $10.00 to raise $225.0M. To target a business combination.
- Zenta Group (ZGM, Nasdaq) – Company. Sept 9, 2025: 1,500,000 shares at $4.00 to raise $6.0M. General corporate purposes.
Markets Weekly
- Market 25 bp cut seen Wednesday; cuts priced into 2026. Risk: Powell/dot-plot pushback on sticky inflation/tariffs.
- ETFs have pulled in $800B+ YTD (≈$475B into equities), putting a $1T haul within reach as stocks notch records and credit stays buoyant ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
- Initial jobless claims 263k (week ended Sept 6), the highest since Oct 2021, reinforcing expectations for a 25 bp cut next week.
- US core CPI +0.3% m/m in Aug; headline +0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y) — inflation in line with expectations.
- ETFs have pulled in $800B+ YTD (with equities ≈$475B), putting a $1T haul within reach as steady “autopilot” flows keep risk appetite high ahead of the Fed meeting.
- Treasuries rallied on softer labor data; the 10-yr fell below 4% as futures priced three 25 bp cuts across the remaining 2025 meetings.
- Gold is up ~5% this month, hitting a record $3,674.27/oz and surpassing its 1980 inflation-adjusted peak (~$3,590).
- Options markets price ~0.72% move for Wednesday’s Fed decision and 0.78% for Oct 3 NFP; with a 25 bp cut fully priced, traders focus on Powell’s tone and Friday’s triple-witching.
- BlackRock is exploring tokenizing ETFs on blockchain to enable after-hours trading, easier global access, and new collateral uses—subject to regulation.
- China bond selloff to nine-month highs fuels bets the PBOC will restart bond purchases potentially five-year notes as soon as this month.
Politics Weekly
- US–China Madrid talks (trade, TikTok) ran ~6h; resume Monday, laying groundwork for a possible Trump–Xi meeting in Oct (South Korea summit).
- Nepal’s ex–chief justice Sushila Karki was sworn in as interim prime minister—the country’s first female PM—after unrest; parliament dissolved and elections set for Mar 5.
- Ukraine is targeting Russia’s oil refineries and export facilities with drones to deprive Russia’s military of fuel and the Kremlin of petroleum revenues.
- Poland scrambled jets and shut Lublin airport amid a drone threat over Ukraine; air defenses raised to highest alert with SMS warnings to six border districts.
- US–UK to fast-track nuclear approvals (~2 yrs via shared safety reviews); AMR plans £50B+; tech/whisky deals to follow on Trump visit.
- Trump says a “big cut” is coming this week; Fed expected to ease for first time in nine months (survey median: 25 bp) as he pressures Powell and floats successors.
- NY Gov. Kathy Hochul endorsed Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor in a NYT op-ed, a key boost to the 33-year-old frontrunner.
- Netanyahu hailed US–Israel ties as Sec. of State Rubio visited after the Doha strike; talks focus on Trump’s push to end the war and free hostages.
Technology Advancements in the week
- OpenAI & Nvidia CEOs to unveil multi-billion UK data-center investments next week, with OpenAI partnering with Nvidia and Nscale.
- Meituan launched “Xiaomei,” a LongCat-powered AI agent for voice meal orders, bookings, and recommendations to boost delivery/local services.
- Tether to launch a US-regulated dollar stablecoin USAT, issued by Anchorage with Cantor Fitzgerald; Bo Hines to lead the US push, aligned with the Genius Act.
👉 Keep the conversation going! Subscribe to our weekly newsletter for more insights, delivered straight to your inbox.