Weekly Market Recap | Mar 09 – Mar 15

Analyst Highlights

The Iran conflict has rapidly become the dominant macro driver, with energy supply risks pushing crude above $100 and reshaping inflation expectations globally.
Bond markets are shifting focus from inflation toward potential growth risks as prolonged high oil prices threaten consumer demand and industrial activity.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release highlights the scale of supply disruption concerns as policymakers attempt to stabilize energy markets.
AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate globally, with hyperscalers committing hundreds of billions toward data centers and next-generation chips.
Semiconductor demand remains heavily concentrated in AI applications, while weakness in smartphones and PCs signals uneven growth across the broader chip sector.
Commodity markets are increasingly shaped by geopolitics, with metals, energy, and fertilizers all responding sharply to war-driven supply shocks.

Pono Capital Four (PONOU, Nasdaq) – Special purpose acquisition company focused on business combinations in growth sectors; IPO March 13, 2026, 15,000,000 shares priced at $10.00, raising $150 million.
MDA Space (MDA, NYSE) – Space technology company providing satellite systems, robotics, and geospatial services; IPO March 12, 2026, 9,836,065 shares priced at $30.50, raising $300 million.
Metals Acquisition II (MTAL.U, NYSE) – Special purpose acquisition company targeting metals and mining sector opportunities; IPO March 12, 2026, 20,000,000 shares priced at $10.00, raising $200 million.
PayPay (PAYP, Nasdaq) – Digital payments platform focused on mobile payments and fintech services; IPO March 12, 2026, 54,987,216 shares priced at $16.00, raising ~$880 million.
SUMA Acquisition (SUMAU, Nasdaq) – Special purpose acquisition company pursuing acquisitions in technology and sustainability sectors; IPO March 11, 2026, 15,000,000 shares priced at $1０.００, raising $15０ million.
FreeCast (CAST, Nasdaq) – Streaming aggregation platform integrating multiple streaming services into a unified interface; IPO March 1０, ２０２６，１９，７８２，０８４ shares priced at $８.００，raising ~$１５８ million.

S&P 500 closed at 6,632.19, down 163.80 points (-2.41%) for the week.
Russell 1000 closed at 3,616.28, down 92.42 points (-2.49%) for the week.
Russell 2000 closed at 2,480.05, down 73.62 points (-2.88%) for the week.
Russell 3000 closed at 3,766.72, down 96.96 points (-2.51%) for the week.
CBOE (VIX) closed at 27.19, up 1.69 points (+6.63%) for the week.
Dow Jones closed at 46,558.47, down 1,182.33 points (-2.48%) for the week.
Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,105.36, down 590.59 points (-2.60%) for the week.
Bitcoin closed at 72,789.91, up 4,387.53 points (+6.41%) for the week.
Ethereum closed at 2,177.48, up 184.54 points (+9.26%) for the week.
Solana closed at 92.25, up 7.31 points (+8.61%) for the week.
XRP closed at 1.4476, up 0.0858 points (+6.30%) for the week.
Gold closed at 5,052.50, down 39.00 points (-0.77%) for the week.
Silver closed at 80.914, down 3.118 points (-3.71%) for the week.
WTI Crude closed at 98.71, up 3.94 points (+4.16%) for the week.
Brent crude closed at 103.14, up 4.18 points (+4.22%) for the week.

Global stocks slid over 5% since the Iran conflict began, putting markets on track for their worst monthly performance since 2022.
Oil climbed above $100 while US stock futures slipped after strikes on Iran’s main export hub raised fears of major supply disruption.
The US launched an 86 million-barrel emergency oil release as war-driven supply disruption pushed crude and fuel prices sharply higher.
Brent crude has surged about 40% since February as the Iran war disrupted energy flows and increased inflation risks globally.
US Treasuries turned negative for 2026 as rising oil prices fueled inflation and growth fears across bond markets.
Bond markets are starting to shift from inflation fears to growth worries as high oil prices threaten broader economic weakness.
Big Tech slipped into correction as the Iran war, higher oil prices, and weaker sentiment weighed on US equities.
Hedge funds turned most bullish on oil since 2020 as the Iran war intensified supply fears and lifted crude bets.
The Iran war is triggering a fertilizer shock as rising urea and ammonia prices lift farming costs and food inflation risks.
The euro hit a seven-month low against the dollar as the oil crisis heightened European growth fears and market stress.

S.–Israel strikes on Iran intensify as Tehran retaliates across the region, escalating Middle East tensions and raising risks of broader regional conflict.
Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, threatening nearly 20% of global oil supply and driving sharp volatility in energy markets.
IEA said Asia will immediately release emergency oil stocks after Middle East war caused historic supply disruptions and blocked Hormuz.
Trump’s unclear endgame on Iran is leaving allies and adversaries guessing as the war enters its third week.
US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island export hub threaten major oil flows, increasing risks of prolonged volatility across global energy markets.
China urged the US to halt Taiwan arms sales after reports of a new weapons deal, reviving cross-strait tensions.
North Korea fired more than 10 ballistic missiles during US-South Korea drills, escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
EU rejected US accusations of global overcapacity after Washington launched a Section 301 trade probe into major partners.

Nvidia will invest in Thinking Machines Lab and supply next-generation AI chips, strengthening its role at the center of global AI infrastructure.
Google will provide the Pentagon with Gemini AI agents for unclassified tasks, expanding enterprise AI adoption across US defense operations.
OpenAI is accelerating its trillion-dollar AI infrastructure buildout, expanding data-center capacity and chip supply to support future model growth.
Microsoft and Meta fueled a $700 billion boom in data-center leases, underscoring how AI demand is reshaping long-term infrastructure spending.
Amazon will deploy Cerebras’ giant AI chips alongside its Trainium processors, expanding AWS capabilities to run faster and more efficient AI models.
The US withdrew a proposed rule requiring global permits for AI chip exports, easing immediate regulatory pressure on semiconductor and AI hardware markets.

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