Weekly Newsletter October 26 – November 01

Analyst Highlights:

Cash generation and borrowing now coexist: Microsoft reported positive quarterly free cash flow while pricing $25 billion of debt.
Resilient growth and persistent inflation favor caution: the Fed’s pause leaves further tightening possible, rather than establishing an easing cycle.
Inflation constrained households: real disposable income fell 0.3% in September, while higher nominal spending delivered almost no real consumption growth.
Nvidia’s reported credit-guarantee discussions show how chip suppliers’ exposure can extend into customers’ infrastructure financing.
IPO execution deserves scrutiny: pricing announcements, completed trading debuts and actual capital raised must be distinguished, particularly in OPay’s case.
Bitcoin ETF demand weakened late: Friday’s $643.2 million withdrawal more than erased the preceding four sessions’ combined inflows.

Anthropic (proposed NASDAQ: ANT) — Filed its S-1 on October 26 for a proposed IPO; the filing did not specify the share count, price range or final offering size.
Bambusa Therapeutics (NASDAQ: BBTX) — Priced approximately 10.56 million shares at $16, an upsized $168.9 million offering; shares closed Friday at $14.99, 6.31% below the offer price.
Aspen Neuroscience (NASDAQ: ASPE) — Priced 9.375 million shares at $15, a $140.6 million offering; shares closed Friday at $14.89, 0.73% below the offer price.
OPay (proposed NYSE: OPAY) — Announced 16 million ADSs at $19, implying $304 million in gross proceeds; shares did not begin trading Friday, leaving execution unresolved.
Georgia Banking Company (NASDAQ: GBC) — Completed its direct listing without raising IPO capital; Friday’s $38.38 close was 27.9% above its last private-round price.
BHAV Acquisition II (BHAIU) and SPACCircle Acquisition (SCQCU) — Each priced a $100 million SPAC offering, targeting technology-related acquisition opportunities.

S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07, falling 43.61 points, or 0.57% for the week.
Russell 1000 closed at 4,124.50, falling 22.43 points, or 0.54% for the week.
Russell 2000 closed at 2,811.84, rising 35.94 points, or 1.29% for the week.
Russell 3000 closed at 4,297.04, falling 20.23 points, or 0.47% for the week.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 19.42, falling 0.03 points, or 0.15% for the week.
Dow Jones closed at 51,770.31, falling 444.85 points, or 0.85% for the week.
NASDAQ Composite closed at 25,437.00, falling 518.34 points, or 2.00% for the week.
Bitcoin closed at $78,248.45, falling $1,775.55, or 2.22% for the week.
Ethereum closed at $2,273.05, falling $53.87, or 2.31% for the week.
Solana closed at $94.45, falling $6.77, or 6.69% for the week.
XRP closed at $1.2499, falling $0.0445, or 3.44% for the week.
Gold closed at $3,898.90, falling $109.00, or 2.72% for the week.
Silver closed at $49.276, falling $4.673, or 8.66% for the week.
WTI closed at $104.12, rising $0.85, or 0.82% for the week.
Brent closed at $117.64, rising $0.92, or 0.79% for the week.

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote; both dissenters favored a quarter-point increase.
U.S. third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% annualized, accelerating from 2.2%, as investment and consumer spending supported the expansion.
September PCE inflation reached 3.6% year over year, with core at 3.1%; inflation-adjusted consumer spending was nearly unchanged.
Intel fell almost 29% Friday after disappointing guidance, exposing pressure from weaker PC demand and rising memory costs.
Canada raised rates to 2.50%, while the ECB and Bank of Japan held steady amid persistent inflation risks.
Microsoft priced $25 billion of senior unsecured notes for general corporate purposes, including potential capital spending; closing is expected November 4.
Seven OPEC+ members kept December production targets unchanged; their next meeting is scheduled for November 29.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $202.4 million in weekly net outflows after Friday’s $643.2 million withdrawal.

Iran and Qatari mediators continued Doha talks on Sunday; a proposed Hormuz reopening timetable remained conditional on an agreement.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers struck mines in Hormuz on Sunday; the account came through Iranian state media.
Israel’s final election results gave Netanyahu’s bloc 53 of 120 seats, leaving coalition formation unresolved and Arab parties potentially pivotal.
The Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery; Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the attack.
Britain’s budget paired household energy support and frozen fuel duty with higher taxes on banks, gambling, savers and landlords.
China’s Communist Party expelled 33 senior officials at its plenum and scheduled the next Party Congress for late 2027.
The Kremlin said talks were underway to lift U.S. sanctions on Russia’s sovereign investment fund; no agreement was announced.

Nvidia was reportedly in talks to provide billions in credit guarantees for Nscale’s Anthropic data-center project; no agreement was announced.
Oracle announced Google TPUs on OCI from 2027, making it the first hyperscaler outside Google to offer the chips.
Microsoft reported $45.2 billion in quarterly capital expenditure and $18.6 billion in free cash flow, demonstrating capacity to fund AI expansion.
Amazon reaffirmed approximately $220 billion in 2026 cash capital expenditure; trailing-year free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion.
Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7 billion, with AI infrastructure, enterprise applications and TPU systems supporting growth.
OpenAI began rolling out GPT-6.1 Terra across its API, ChatGPT Work and Codex for visual reasoning, computer use and writing.
OpenAI and ServiceNow expanded their partnership across enterprise workflows, application development and cybersecurity, with several capabilities scheduled for 2027.
Anthropic detailed six drug-development partnerships and its acquisition of Mithril Medicine; the disclosed research remains predominantly preclinical.