Consulting, Newsletter, Tech

Weekly Market Recap | May 19 – May 25

Posted on by Ali

Key Takeaways

  1. Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on EU Imports
     The President escalated tensions with Europe, saying he’s “not looking for a deal”—prompting the EU to prepare €95B in counter-tariffs and warning of transatlantic trade fallout.
  2. Fed Stays on Hold as April Core PCE Rises 0.1%
     Policymakers signaled patience amid modest inflation and cooling consumer spending, opting to wait for more clarity on trade-driven price impacts.
  3. U.S. Steel Surges 21% After Trump Backs Nippon Deal
     Trump conditionally approved Nippon Steel’s $14.1B takeover of U.S. Steel, positioning it as a “partnership” with 70,000 jobs and no layoffs through 2026.
  4. Pakistan Deploys China’s J-10C Fighter in Air Clash
     Pakistan’s reported use of Chinese jets sparked a rally in Chinese defense stocks, with AVIC Chengdu surging nearly 40% as global investors took notice.
  5. Bitcoin Tops $107K as Risk Assets Stumble
     While stocks and bonds sold off on fiscal concerns, Bitcoin rose 0.81% this week, reinforcing its position as a potential hedge in macro volatility.

IPO’s in the week

  • Armada Acquisition Corp. II (Nasdaq: AACIU), a Cayman Islands–incorporated blank check company formed to pursue business combinations in FinTech, SaaS, and AI sectors, completed its IPO on May 21, 2025. The company offered 20,000,000 units at $10.00 each, raising $200 million to fund a future merger or acquisition. Armada is led by CEO Stephen P. Herbert and has not yet identified a specific target for its initial business combination.
  • OFA Group (Nasdaq: OFAL), a Hong Kong–based provider of architectural design and fit-out services for commercial and residential spaces, completed its IPO on May 21, 2025. The company offered 3,750,000 shares at $4.00 each, raising $15 million to support its mission of maximizing property value through innovative, space-optimized architectural solutions. OFA Group operates through its wholly owned subsidiary, Office for Fine Architecture Limited, and is led by CEO Li Hsien Wong.
  • ProCap Acquisition Corp (Nasdaq: PCAPU), a blank check company incorporated in the Cayman Islands and led by entrepreneur Anthony J. Pompliano, completed its IPO on May 21, 2025. The company offered 22,000,000 units at $10.00 each, raising $220 million to fund a future business combination. ProCap aims to target high-growth opportunities across financial services, fintech, digital assets, consumer, and healthcare sectors.
  • Hinge Health, Inc. (NYSE: HNGE), a digital health company pioneering AI-powered musculoskeletal (MSK) care, completed its IPO on May 22, 2025. The company offered 13,666,000 shares at $32.00 each, raising $437.3 million to expand its platform that delivers personalized, automated joint and muscle care. Hinge Health combines motion tracking technology, nerve stimulation wearables, and a virtual care team to reduce surgical need and improve mobility outcomes. The company is led by co-founder and CEO Daniel Perez.
  • MNTN, Inc. (NYSE: MNTN), a performance marketing platform transforming Connected TV (CTV) into a data-driven advertising channel, completed its IPO on May 22, 2025. The company offered 11,700,000 shares at $16.00 each, raising $187.2 million to accelerate growth of its Performance TV software. MNTN’s self-serve platform enables advertisers to target audiences with TV ads and directly measure returns, with over 2,200 customers onboarded by 2024. The company is led by CEO Mark Douglas and headquartered in Austin, Texas.
  • Oyster Enterprises II Acquisition Corp (Nasdaq: OYSEU), a Cayman Islands–incorporated blank check company targeting value-driven business combinations across industries like technology, media, digital assets, and real estate, completed its IPO on May 22, 2025. The company offered 22,000,000 units at $10.00 each, raising $220 million to pursue acquisitions that unlock shareholder value through operational improvements and strategic execution. Oyster Enterprises is led by CEO Mario Zarazua and headquartered in Miami, Florida.
  • Cal Redwood Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: CRAQU), a Cayman Islands–based blank check company targeting technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) businesses, completed its IPO on May 23, 2025. The company offered 20,000,000 units at $10.00 each, raising $200 million to pursue acquisitions in sectors undergoing digital disruption. Headquartered in Menlo Park, California, and led by CEO Daven Patel, Cal Redwood aims to leverage its team’s operational and investment expertise to identify high-potential targets and unlock post-merger value.
  • Fast Track Group (Nasdaq: FTRK), a Singapore-based entertainment-focused event management and marketing company, completed its IPO on May 23, 2025. The company offered 3,750,000 shares at $4.00 each, raising $15 million to support its regional expansion and diversification efforts. Known for organizing concerts, celebrity events, and film premieres across Asia-Pacific, Fast Track is led by CEO Harris Sin Foo Lim and aims to grow beyond its concentration on a few major clients by entering new segments of the entertainment industry.

Markets this week

  1. The S&P 500 closed at 5802.82, down 100.06 points and 1.70% for the week.
  2. Russell 1000 ETF closed at 318.40, down 4.99 points and 1.54% for the week.
  3. Russell 2000 closed at 2039.85, down 42.35 points and 2.03% for the week.
  4. Russell 3000 closed at 3299.81, down 55.53 points and 1.65% for the week.
  5. CBOE Volatility Index closed at 22.29, up 2.45 points and 12.35% for the week.
  6. Dow Jones closed at 41603.07, down 939.74 points and 2.21% for the week.
  7. NASDAQ Composite closed at 18737.21, down 200.21 points and 1.06% for the week.
  8. Bitcoin closed at $107,287.80, up $857.27 and 0.81% during 5 trading days.
  9. Ethereum closed at $2526.44, up $27.64 and 1.11% during 5 trading days.
  10. XRP closed at $2.2943, down $0.1392 and 5.72% for the week.
  11. Gold closed at $3363.60, up $129.20 and 3.99% for the week.
  12. Silver closed at $33.44, up $1.00 and 3.08% for the week.
  13. WTI closed at $61.53, down $1.22 and 1.94% for the week.
  14. Brent closed at $64.78, down $0.53 and 0.81% for the week.
  • EU Trade Chief said the bloc is open to talks but ready to impose €95B in counter-tariffs if the U.S. follows through.
  • U.S. Steel shares surged 21% after Trump conditionally approved Nippon Steel’s $14.1B takeover, which includes major U.S. investments and no layoffs through 2026.
  • Elon Musk, frustrated by criticism and political backlash, appears refocused on Tesla’s turnaround after recent sales drops and Cybertruck setbacks.
  • A high-stakes arbitration begins Monday in London over Exxon’s attempt to block Chevron’s $53B acquisition of Hess and its prized Guyana assets.
  • John Rogers, a former Fed official, was indicted for allegedly leaking sensitive economic data to Chinese agents posing as students.
  • The classic 60/40 portfolio returned 1.6% YTD through mid-May, but rising 30-year Treasury yields are pressuring bond performance amid deficit fears.
  • Investors are shifting to 2–5 year Treasuries as safer hedges, with curve steepening emerging as a key trade amid inflation and fiscal uncertainty.
  • With core PCE up just 0.1% in April, the Fed is staying patient in May, awaiting clearer signs of inflation from new tariffs and trade policies.
  • Consumer spending cooled in April, and with the labor market still steady, Fed officials are signaling a continued rate pause through late May.
  • Allianz GI says GOP efforts to repeal clean-energy incentives are eroding policy stability, pushing capital flows toward Europe and Canada.
  • Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy with China and the EU is fueling early stockpiling, freight surcharges, and Red Sea rerouting, intensifying global shipping bottlenecks.
  • CDPQ aims to boost UK asset exposure by 50%, targeting infrastructure and clean energy as it trims U.S. holdings slightly.
  • While stocks, bonds, and credit sold off on U.S. fiscal fears, Bitcoin surged, gaining institutional support and topping $112K for the first time.
  • Despite a 90% drop in lithium prices, Yichun mines operate at a loss as Beijing prioritizes battery supply chain self-sufficiency amid trade tensions.
  • Turkey’s central bank raised reserve requirements on short-term foreign liabilities to curb access to cheap offshore lira, reinforcing its tight stance amid 38% inflation and a 46% policy rate.
  • Masayoshi Son floated a tech and infrastructure fund jointly run by the U.S. and Japan, aiming to attract public and private capital.
  • Brookfield Asset Management is set to move into the large-cap Russell 1000 Index on June 27, after a 40% stock gain over the past year.
  • Pakistan’s use of Chinese J-10C fighters drove investor interest in China’s defense sector, with AVIC Chengdu shares jumping nearly 40% in May.

Politics Weekly

  • Trump warned of 50% tariffs on EU imports starting June 1, citing stalled trade talks and lack of EU concessions.
  • The U.S. urged the EU to join its tariff campaign against China, citing unfair state subsidies—so far, the EU has not committed.
  • EU Trade Chief said the bloc is open to talks but ready to impose €95B in counter-tariffs if the U.S. follows through.
  • President Trump gave conditional approval to Nippon Steel’s $14.1B takeover of U.S. Steel, calling it a “partnership” that could add 70,000 jobs.
  • Trump met privately with top 220 $TRUMP meme coin holders, embracing his new “Crypto President” persona and fueling memecoin market buzz.
  • Trump showcased his dominance over the Republican Party by pushing a sweeping tax-and-spending bill through the House, extending 2017 tax cuts.
  • Joe Biden is battling stage-4 cancer and struggling to fund his library and legacy, as financial pressures and health concerns mount.
  • Net-long positions on Brent crude jumped to a 6-week high as fading prospects for a U.S.–Iran deal raised supply concerns.
  • Iran and the U.S. called the Rome talks “constructive,” with both sides signaling progress toward a potential nuclear deal.
  • The EU is weighing cutting 20+ Russian banks from SWIFT and lowering the oil price cap to $45 as part of a new sanctions package.
  • Taiwan is rushing to boost its limited drone arsenal as China’s inventory vastly outnumbers it, with new army and sea drone units in the works.
  • Macron began his Asia tour in Vietnam, focusing on energy and infrastructure ties, with a power grid deal expected and stops in Indonesia and Singapore ahead.
  • Russia and Ukraine completed a 1,000-person prisoner swap—their largest yet—as Russian airstrikes killed 12 in Kyiv, prompting fresh calls for sanctions from Zelenskiy.
  • Germany’s finance minister called for restraint in the U.S.-EU tariff clash, warning the dispute harms both economies.

Technology Advancements this week

  • Xiaomi plans to invest $7 billion over the next decade in chip design, with a 3-nanometer mobile chip launch expected this week.
  • AI voice bots are rapidly advancing with better speech and language models, offering cost savings but raising concerns about trust and user comfort.
  • Flybits is piloting an AI-powered XRCard that projects spending data onto smart glasses, offering immersive, app-free, voice-enabled banking for millennials.
  • Nvidia plans a cheaper Blackwell-based AI chip for China, priced at $6,500–$8,000, as it seeks U.S. approval to re-enter the $50B Chinese data center market.

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