Weekly Market Recap | Sep 22 – Sep 28

Analyst Highlights

• Macro tone: August PCE in line, calming Fed fears; economists cut US jobs forecast (~71k/month through 2026), reinforcing expectations for 100 bps of rate cuts by next year.
• Politics: UN reinstates sanctions on Iran; Putin steps up hybrid warfare vs. Europe; Trump faces shutdown fight; UK Labour escalates migration debate.
• Equities: Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI deal pushed stocks to early-week highs, but profit-taking dragged indices lower by week’s end.
• Fixed income: Europe bond sales hit record €208.9B (4.66× cover); US IG issuance strong with Oracle leading ~$26B.
• Commodities: WTI +4.9%, Brent +5.3% on tightening supply outlook, despite OPEC+ prepping a Nov output hike.
• Tech & AI: Apple preps revamped Siri via “Veritas”; CoreWeave expands OpenAI deals to $22.4B; Fortescue says AI-driven power demand will boost US renewables despite policy headwinds.

IPO’s in the week

• American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp (AEXA, NYSE) – Priced at $10.00 on Sept 26, 2025, raising $250M through 25M shares. The SPAC focuses on acquisition opportunities in U.S.-centric industries. Stock opened with a 6.1% gain.
• FutureCrest Acquisition (FCRS.UT, NYSE) – Raised $250M on Sept 26, 2025, offering 25M units at $10.00 each. The blank-check company is targeting growth-oriented technology and financial services sectors. Shares posted a 3.5% increase on debut.
• Megan Holdings (MGN, Nasdaq) – A traditional IPO on Sept 26, 2025, pricing 1.25M shares at $4.00 to raise $5M. The small-cap listing surged strongly, closing with a 21.25% gain.
• Drugs Made in America Acquisition (DMIIU, Nasdaq) – SPAC IPO on Sept 25, 2025, raising $500M through 50M units at $10.00 each. The company is pursuing acquisitions in U.S. healthcare and biotech manufacturing. Shares slipped 0.3% on day one.
• Emmis Acquisition (EMISU, Nasdaq) – Raised $100M on Sept 25, 2025, issuing 10M units at $10.00. The acquisition vehicle aims at opportunities across media and digital transformation. Shares were flat (0.0%) on debut.

Markets Weekly

1. S&P 500 closed at 6,643.70, -50.05 pts and -0.75% for the week.
2. Russell 1000 (IWB) closed at 363.59, down -2.87 pts and -0.78% for the week.
3. Russell 2000 closed at 2,434.32, down -29.02 pts and -1.18% for the week.
4. Russell 3000 closed at 3,781.53, down -31.01 pts and -0.81% for the week.
5. CBOE (VIX) closed at 15.29, down -0.81 pts and -5.03% for the week.
6. Dow Jones (DJI) closed at 46,247.29, down -134.25 pts and -0.29% for the week.
7. NASDAQ Composite closed at 22,484.07, down -304.91 pts and -1.34% for the week.
8. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) closed at 109,681.95, down -3,066.56 and -2.72% for the week.
9. Ethereum (ETH-USD) closed at 4,018.66, down -184.22 and -4.38% for the week.
10. Solana (SOL-USD) closed at 203.58, down -16.92 and -7.67% for the week.
11. XRP (XRP-USD) closed at 2.8077, down -0.1653 and -5.56% for the week.
12. Gold closed at 3,775.30, up +34.60 and +0.92% for the week.
13. Silver closed at 46.22, up +2.42 and +5.53% for the week.
14. WTI Crude closed at 65.72, up +3.08 and +4.91% for the week.
15. Brent Crude closed at 70.13, up +3.56 and +5.35% for the week.

• U.S. stocks hit fresh highs after Nvidia unveiled a $100B OpenAI infrastructure deal, fueling optimism across mega-cap tech.
• August inflation / PCE data landed broadly in line with forecasts, helping calm fears of aggressive Fed hikes.
• OPEC+ is reportedly preparing to raise output by ~137,000 barrels per day at its upcoming November meeting, putting potential downward pressure on crude prices.
• In the U.K., private sector activity growth slipped, with the composite PMI dropping to its slowest in months, reflecting weak external demand and domestic uncertainty.
• Silver breaks $45/oz for the first time since 2011 (≈+55% YTD) as gold hovers just ~$50 below record—precious-metals momentum accelerates.
• Europe bonds: Issuance hit a September-record €208.9B with 4.66× order books—borrowers locking in favorable funding.
• Big Tech’s AI buildout is fueling blockbuster bond sales—US IG tech issuance hit ~$157B YTD (+70% YoY), led by Oracle’s ~$26B, as investors rush to fund the AI race.
• Economists cut US job growth forecasts to ~71k/month from Q4’25 through 2026 (−20k vs prior), reinforcing expectations for continued Fed easing.
• Euro-zone inflation likely rose to ~2.2% in September (5-month high), driven by energy and airfares—keeping the ECB on hold after its recent cut.
• Tether seeks up to $20B at a ~$500B valuation, leaning on USDT’s ~60% market share and cash flow to expand into AI, mining, and commodities.
• TikTok US pegged at ~$14B in Trump-backed deal—well below prior ~$40B estimates—surprising investors; Oracle/Silver Lake seen as potential buyers.
• Kraken in advanced talks to raise $200–300M at a ~$20B valuation; has hired Morgan Stanley and Goldman for an IPO next year.

Politics Weekly

• Starmer labels Reform’s immigration policy “racist”; sharpens election lines and the migration debate.
• US-led plan for a transitional Gaza authority (Tony Blair floated) advances ahead of Trump–Netanyahu talks; adds a governance track alongside ceasefire efforts.
• Rome approves a naval humanitarian mission as Europe splits over Israel; tests EU unity and could complicate Eastern Med maritime security.
• US officials spotlight European “censorship” via digital rules at the UN, raising transatlantic friction over tech regulation and free speech.
• Japan’s LDP leadership contest looms as the government’s grip loosens; sets up potential shifts in fiscal, defense, and yen policy.
• Moldova heads to a pivotal election as pro-EU President Maia Sandu faces Moscow-leaning opposition; Kremlin influence seeks to stall the country’s EU pivot.
• Trump downplays looming shutdown; blames Democrats as talks stall, while Sen. Thune pushes a clean stopgap and urges Democrats to scale back demands.
• BLS would delay the September jobs report if a shutdown hits—leaving the Fed with less data ahead of its next meeting.
• Putin ramps up a hybrid campaign against Europe—sabotage, cyber ops, disinformation—testing NATO and straining EU stability as states scramble defenses.
• UN reinstates broad Iran sanctions—arms embargo, enrichment ban, asset/travel freezes—after talks collapse; elevates Middle East risk and oil watch.

Technology Advancements in the week

• Xiaomi plans $7B+ for an in-house mobile processor with ~2,500 engineers deepening vertical integration and upping stakes in China’s handset race.
• CoreWeave expands OpenAI agreements to as much as $22.4B (up by ~$6.5B), supplying capacity to train next-gen models.
• Fortescue says AI-era power demand will boost US renewables despite Trump’s stance—clean energy already outcompetes coal/gas on cost.
• Apple builds ‘Veritas,’ a ChatGPT-like internal app to test a revamped Siri, including personal-data search and in-app actions.

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