Analyst Highlights
- IPO tape breadth: Ten pricings across SPACs/tech/finance; largest prints FRMI $682.5M, BCSSU $400M, KRSPU $300M; note micro-cap AGRZ $5M risk.
- Rates risk: BoJ policy shift steepens JGB curve; watch U.S. duration beta and JPY spillovers; hedges via UST futures / payer swaptions.
- Crypto beta: BTC record ~$125.7k, +30% YTD; flows concentrated in spot ETFs—tactical upside, but fragile if risk-off; size via options collars.
- AI complex: Semis add ~$200B cap; Aligned ~$40B takeout underscores power + rack constraints; monitor power OEMs, grid, REITs proxies.
- Liquidity watch: Reserves ~$2.98T (<$3T for 8 weeks) tightens collateral; raises odds of earlier QT taper; overweight front-end bills, agency MBS carry selectively.
- FX structure: BIS $9.6T/day, USD 89.2% share; CNY 8.5% near GBP; maintain USD core, trade JPY/EUR tactically on policy divergence.
IPO’s in the week
- Knorex Ltd. (KNRX, NYSE American) – A Singapore-based programmatic advertising platform provider leveraging AI/ML to automate omni-channel ad buying and optimization. IPO: Sept 29, 2025, 3M shares at $4.00, raising $12M. The funds will support expansion of its flagship Knorex XPO™ cloud platform and corporate growth initiatives.
- Bain Capital GSS Investment Corp. (BCSSU, NYSE) – A Bain Capital–sponsored SPAC targeting fundamentally strong, long-term growth businesses where Bain’s capital and operating platform can accelerate value. IPO: Sept 30, 2025, 40M units at $10.00, raising $400M. Use: to pursue an initial business combination.
- BTC Development Corp. (BDCIU, Nasdaq Global) – A SPAC targeting businesses in the bitcoin ecosystem or firms aiming to integrate bitcoin into treasury, balance sheet, or operations. IPO: Sept 30, 2025, 22M units at $10.00, raising $220M. Use: pursue an initial business combination in bitcoin-linked opportunities.
- StoneBridge Acquisition II Corp (APACU, Nasdaq Capital) – SPAC targeting international APAC/EMEA companies (e-commerce, fintech, SaaS, renewable energy, mining, IT/ITES) aiming for U.S. listing valuation arbitrage. IPO: Sept 30, 2025, 5M units at $10.00, raising $50M. Use: pursue an initial business combination.
- AA Mission Acquisition Corp. II (YCY.U, NYSE) – SPAC targeting a future business combination. IPO: Oct 1, 2025, 10M units at $10.00, raising $100M; each unit = 1 Class A share + ½ warrant (exercise $11.50). Use: pursue an initial business combination; over-allotment option: 1.5M units.
- Agroz Inc. (AGRZ, Nasdaq Capital) – Malaysia-based AgTech/vertical farming (CEA) company that designs, builds, and operates indoor farms; revenue from farm design/operations, farm sales, and fresh produce. IPO: Oct 1, 2025, 1.25M shares at $4.00, raising $5M.
- Fermi Inc. (FRMI, Nasdaq Global Select) – Advanced energy & hyperscaler developer building grid-independent power for AI data centers (Project Matador, TX; plan up to 11 GW via natural gas, nuclear, solar) under a tax-efficient REIT structure. IPO: Oct 1, 2025, 32.5M shares at $21.00, raising $682.5M.
- Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP, NYSE) – AI/data-driven MGA for flood and catastrophe insurance (no balance-sheet risk), distributing via nationwide agency network with strong margins. IPO: Oct 1, 2025, 18.42M shares at $20.00, raising $368.4M.
- Rice Acquisition Corp 3 (KRSPU, NYSE) – SPAC targeting the energy value chain (upstream oil & gas, power generation, energy infrastructure, critical metals/minerals). IPO: Oct 1, 2025, 30M units at $10.00, raising $300M. Use: pursue an initial business combination.
- Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. (CBK, Nasdaq Capital) – Tennessee-based community bank holding company operating across Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina, offering consumer and commercial banking services through Commercial Bank. IPO: Oct 2, 2025, 7.17M shares at $24.00, raising $172.15M.
- AI Infrastructure Acquisition Corp. (AIIAU, NYSE) – SPAC targeting AI/ML and next-gen data center infrastructure (HPC, cloud, semiconductor acceleration, edge). Status: Filed; Proposed IPO: 10M units at $10.00 (up to $115M incl. 1.5M over-allotment).
- CCH Holdings Ltd (CCHH, Nasdaq Capital) – Malaysia-based specialty hotpot restaurant group (Chicken Claypot House; 34 outlets via owned + franchise) with expansion plans across SE Asia. Status: Filed; Proposed IPO: 1.25M shares at $4.00–$6.00 (up to $8.625M incl. 187,500 over-allotment).
- Range Capital Acquisition Corp II (RNGTU, Nasdaq Global) – SPAC with a broad mandate (no specific industry/region), led by the Range I team and positioned to pursue targets surfaced via its PE/banking network. Status: Filed; Proposed IPO: 20M units at $10.00, raising $200M.
Markets Weekly
- Japan’s JGBs surge as BoJ trims buys and hikes rates; yields up, curve steepest among majors. MTM hits for holders; U.S. Treasuries sensitive amid foreign inflows.
- Bitcoin nears record ~$124.5k as shutdown jitters fuel debasement bid; ETF inflows, equity rally, Uptober and corporate buys lift.
- Momentum strategies notch best 3-year run across equities, commodities, FX; global stocks add ~$35T; only 22% of active funds beat.
- Bitcoin hits fresh record ~$125.7k; Uptober, ETF inflows, equity rally lift; shutdown “debasement” bid persists; up >30% YTD.
- Chipmakers add ~$200B as AI frenzy lifts U.S. and Asia semis; Philadelphia Semi Index and Asia gauges surge; FOMO fuels bids, bubble worries shrugged.
- BlackRock’s GIP nears ~$40B deal for Aligned Data Centers; AI buildout accelerates; 78 Americas sites target ~5GW capacity.
- Global FX trading hits ~$9.6T/day (+28% vs 2022), BIS says; USD on 89.2% of trades; euro share 28.9%. FX swaps remain largest at 42% of turnover (down from 51%).
- US bank reserves drop 8th week, -$20.1B to ~$2.98T (lowest since Jan); sub-$3T persists.
- Dallas Fed’s Logan says inflation remains top issue; policy only moderately restrictive; urges caution on further rate cuts.
Politics Weekly
- Trump pushes Israel–Hamas deal as Egypt talks open; demands hostage releases for prisoner swap; Kushner and Witkoff attend; delegations from both sides present.
- EU plans higher steel-import tariffs, mirroring U.S. duties; Commission to cut quotas and impose tariff-rate safeguards.
- EU moves to unlock ~€140B from immobilized Russian assets for Ukraine loans; tailored 0% debt contract to safeguard claims.
- G-7 nears deal to tighten curbs on Russian oil revenue; options span energy, finance and military sectors.
- Russia escalates strikes on Ukraine’s gas sector as heating season begins; Naftogaz suffers the largest aerial hit on extraction infrastructure.
- Ukraine claims strike on Russia’s Kirishi (Kinef) refinery, one of the largest (>20 mtpa); explosions, fire reported.
- Czech billionaire Andrej Babis set to return to power after decisive election win; ANO 35%; vows to undo austerity, curb Ukraine aid, buck EU line.
- Iran signals readiness to address nuclear standoff; FM Araghchi says Tehran will pursue trust-building solutions but deems September IAEA framework insufficient..
- South Africa moves to further downgrade ties with Taiwan under Chinese pressure; alignment with Beijing deepens.
- China urges Trump to ease national-security curbs in exchange for a large investment package; proposals include tariff relief for inputs at China-owned U.S. factories.
Technology Advancements in the week
- OpenAI launches a standalone Sora app for creating and sharing AI-generated videos, featuring realistic avatars and physics-aware rendering.
- Google brings Gemini to the smart home via new Nest cameras, doorbell and speaker; 2K HDR video, wider views, improved low-light, event history.
- OpenAI hits ~$500B valuation via $6.6B employee tender; becomes world’s largest startup, surpassing SpaceX’s ~$400B.
- AI dominates 2025 VC flows with ~$192.7B invested; records set but funding concentrates in established startups.
- BlackRock’s GIP nears ~$40B deal for Aligned Data Centers; AI data-center buildout accelerates; earlier $12B raise supports expansion.
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