Weekly Newsletter September 07 – 13 September

Analyst Highlights

• Energy is back in the inflation equation: Oil above $100 could keep price pressures elevated and make the Fed’s policy path more difficult to navigate.
• Higher yields are tightening financial conditions: A 10-year Treasury yield near 5% raises the hurdle rate for equities, credit and business investment.
• Small caps are showing greater rate sensitivity: The Russell 2000’s 2.41% decline suggests tighter financial conditions are weighing more heavily on smaller companies.
• Markets are balancing inflation against growth: Investors are absorbing higher energy costs and rate expectations while continuing to support areas tied to earnings and AI investment.
• Geopolitical risk is becoming a market variable: Disruptions around Hormuz, the Red Sea and Saudi energy infrastructure are increasingly influencing global supply and pricing expectations.
• AI investment is broadening beyond models: This week’s developments point toward a larger ecosystem spanning chips, enterprise applications, public markets, open-source infrastructure and safety.

IPO’s in the week

• Holtec Nuclear Corp. (HNUC, Nasdaq) — Launched its proposed IPO roadshow September 8, offering 50 million shares at $15–$18, targeting up to $900 million and a valuation of up to $10.2 billion.
• Orion180 Insurance Group (OIG, Nasdaq) — Launched its proposed IPO September 9, offering 20 million shares at $15–$17, targeting approximately $320 million.
• Anthropic — Selected Nasdaq for a potential IPO, adding another major AI company to the public-markets pipeline; no IPO occurred this week.

Markets Weekly

1. 1. S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98, falling 61.62 points, or 0.80%, for the week.
   2. Russell 1000 closed at 4,167.26, falling 37.12 points, or 0.88%, for the week.
   3. Russell 2000 closed at 2,903.94, falling 71.71 points, or 2.41%, for the week.
   4. Russell 3000 closed at 4,345.43, falling 41.48 points, or 0.95%, for the week.
   5. CBOE (VIX) closed at 15.84, rising 1.31 points, or 9.02%, for the week.
   6. Dow Jones (DJI) closed at 52,573.29, falling 840.96 points, or 1.57%, for the week.
   7. Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,333.04, falling 173.95 points, or 0.66%, for the week.
   8. Bitcoin closed at $77,390.07, falling $2,632.78, or 3.29%, for the week.
   9. Ethereum closed at $2,536.58, rising $26.65, or 1.06%, for the week.
   10. Solana closed at $102.58, falling $3.27, or 3.09%, for the week.
   11. XRP closed at $1.3600, falling $0.0590, or 4.16%, for the week.
   12. Gold closed at $4,366.20, falling $63.60, or 1.44%, for the week.
   13. Silver closed at $64.430, falling $1.617, or 2.45%, for the week.
   14. WTI Crude closed at $100.05, rising $8.57, or 9.37%, for the week.
   15. Brent Crude closed at $104.61, rising $8.33, or 8.65%, for the week.

• August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, strengthening expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
• Markets priced roughly an 85% probability of a quarter-point Fed hike as inflation and energy costs remained elevated.
• The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, briefly reaching 4.9915% as investors weighed inflation, oil and fiscal pressures.
• Brent crude climbed to $109.97 before retreating, as Middle East attacks and shipping disruptions intensified global supply concerns.
• Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was shut after drone attacks, creating a potential disruption equivalent to up to 4% of global oil supply.
• U.S. stocks rebounded Friday as oil prices eased, but the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq still posted weekly losses.

Politics Weekly

• The Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast created a second strategic pressure point on global shipping after the disruption around Hormuz.
• Trump said the U.S. could remain in Iran beyond the conflict to secure oil resources, while suggesting the war could continue past the November midterms.
• Trump urged the Federal Reserve to keep U.S. interest rates among the world’s lowest despite elevated inflation.
• Germany’s AfD won nearly 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, shaking Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition and marking a historic state-level breakthrough.
• BRICS members including Iran and the UAE backed a joint call for restraint, de-escalation and protection of global trade and maritime stability.
• Xi Jinping pushed expanded BRICS cooperation in AI, trade and finance while China promoted a BRICS AI Open Source Zone.
• Trump urged Ukraine to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure as attacks contributed to fuel shortages and U.S. diesel prices above $6 per gallon.

Technology Advancements in the week

• OpenAI expanded its partnership with Samsung on next-generation chip development and enterprise AI services as demand for AI computing grows.
• OpenAI said it will not pursue an IPO in 2026, with Sam Altman citing the growing importance of AI safety and alignment.
• Anthropic selected Nasdaq for its potential IPO, adding another major AI company to the pipeline for public markets.
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slower pace of frontier-AI development, with Sam Altman backing calls for stronger safety coordination.
• China used the BRICS summit to propose an AI Open Source Zone focused on cooperation around open-source artificial intelligence.

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