Weekly Newsletter November 02 – November 08

Analyst Highlights:

• The labor market looks firmer than previously reported. August and September payrolls were revised up by a combined 84,000. That gives the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
• Data center permitting is a local risk. UBS estimated that about 30% of planned U.S. capacity additions for 2028 could be at risk as local opposition complicates project approvals.
• AI spending puts financing terms in focus. Oracle priced its shares at $116, roughly 11% below its prior close. For shareholders, the terms put a price on raising equity for the buildout.
• Crude remains sensitive to shipping disruptions. Even as traders priced in a greater chance of de-escalation, a fatal explosion on a Gulf tanker showed the supply risk was still present.
• Crypto selling was broad. XRP and Solana fell roughly 2.4 and 1.9 times as much as Bitcoin, respectively, over the seven-day window.

IPOs in the week:

• Anthropic (proposed: ANT) — Amended its U.S. IPO filing, reporting $17.0 billion in third-quarter revenue and a $567 million operating loss. Of $895.4 billion in compute and infrastructure commitments, $69.8 billion was due within 12 months of September 30. The offering had yet to price.
• Anthropic IPO timing — Reuters reported that potential investors questioned whether the selloff would allow the company to start its planned roadshow in time for a November listing.
• OPay (proposed NYSE: OPAY) — Its November 2 filing disclosed that the company had canceled its $304 million U.S. IPO after a regulatory inquiry. The offering had priced 16 million American depositary shares at $19 each, the bottom of the proposed range.
• Narragansett Bancorp (NASDAQ: NARA) — Debuted after selling 9,098,800 shares at $10 in a subscription offering, raising approximately $91.0 million. Shares ended the week about 8% above the offer price.
• vVardis (proposed: VVVV) — Set terms for 9.52 million shares at $21–$24, targeting about $214 million at the midpoint of its proposed U.S. offering.
• Rezera (proposed: RZRA) — Set terms for 16.67 million shares at $11–$13, targeting $200 million at the midpoint of its proposed U.S. offering.
• Churchill Capital XIV (CXIVU), Kartoon Studios Acquisition (KACQ.U) and A Paradise III Acquisition (APCDU) — Filed for proposed SPAC offerings targeting $300 million, $300 million and $100 million, respectively.
• Guitar Group, UC Automotive Holdings and BEHNEH (BENE) — Filed initial U.S. IPO proposals targeting $31 million, $29 million and $20 million, respectively.

Markets Weekly:

1. S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86, falling 203.21 points, or 2.68% for the week.
2. Russell 1000 closed at 4,018.78, falling 105.72 points, or 2.56% for the week.
3. Russell 2000 closed at 2,754.11, falling 57.74 points, or 2.05% for the week.
4. Russell 3000 closed at 4,187.77, falling 109.27 points, or 2.54% for the week.
5. Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 25.64, rising 6.22 points, or 32.03% for the week.
6. Dow Jones closed at 51,285.73, falling 484.58 points, or 0.94% for the week.
7. Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.43, falling 857.57 points, or 3.37% for the week.
8. Bitcoin closed at $74,584.65, falling $3,663.80, or 4.68% for the week.
9. Ethereum closed at $2,120.98, falling $152.07, or 6.69% for the week.
10. Solana closed at $86.24, falling $8.21, or 8.69% for the week.
11. XRP closed at $1.1105, falling $0.1394, or 11.15% for the week.
12. Gold futures closed at $4,074.90, rising $176.00, or 4.51% for the week.
13. Silver futures closed at $51.942, rising $2.666, or 5.41% for the week.
14. WTI crude futures closed at $90.83, falling $13.29, or 12.76% for the week.
15. January Brent crude futures closed at $98.32, falling $15.11, or 13.32% for the week.

• The Dow rose 1,569 points, or 3.0%, on Wednesday after the midterms, even as data center stocks fell and the semiconductor index dropped 3.1%.
• The rally reversed Thursday as investors weighed possible restrictions on data center construction. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% and entered correction territory, while the Nasdaq 100 lost about $2.5 trillion in market value.
• U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in October. Unemployment was 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from the prior month.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points on Friday to 4.86% after the jobs report, still below its 4.91% reading on Monday.
• October’s ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 from 54.5, as U.S. factory activity expanded at a faster pace.
• The ISM services index eased to 54.5 from 54.9 in October as new orders grew more slowly. The sector remained in expansion.
• The University of Michigan’s preliminary November consumer sentiment index rose to 51.0 from 48.0, while year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3%.
• The Bank of England raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% in an 8–1 vote.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.28 billion in net outflows across the five trading sessions, including $430.2 million on Thursday and $411.9 million on Friday.

Politics Weekly:

• Democrats won control of both the U.S. House and Senate in the November 3 midterms, setting up divided government.
• Trump named Stephen Miller to succeed Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff. Wiles was set to move to his political operation.
• The election result made Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense budget request harder to pass, as Democrats gained influence over funding negotiations.
• A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran sent Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar and tied further discussions to U.S. acceptance of its conditions. Trump said Sunday that another U.S. strike was unlikely if negotiations continued to advance.
• Israeli President Isaac Herzog asked former military chief Gadi Eisenkot to try to form a government. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats and Eisenkot’s won 48, both short of the 61 needed for a majority.
• Russia attacked Ukraine’s power grid on Tuesday. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched 289 drones and 76 missiles, hitting power plants and substations.
• Saudi Arabia said it intercepted four missiles on Sunday. Falling debris damaged a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh; the Houthis claimed responsibility.
• The U.S. Treasury sanctioned eight Canadian money services businesses it said had helped move funds for sanctioned Iranian entities.

Technology Advancements in the week:

• Marvell agreed to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock deal valuing Lumentum at $115 billion including debt. The proposed combination brings together Marvell’s networking chips and Lumentum’s optical technology for AI data centers.
• AMD reported record quarterly revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45% year over year, as data center revenue rose 97% to $8.5 billion. The company forecast approximately $17 billion in fourth-quarter revenue.
• About 600,000 Nvidia H200 chips were awaiting shipment from Hong Kong while Beijing withheld approval for large-scale mainland imports, Reuters reported.
• Voters approved data center restrictions in 44 of 45 completed local referendums tracked by Redbud Consulting, underscoring the risk that new projects face longer permitting timelines.
• Oracle priced approximately $20 billion in financing, split between roughly $10 billion in common stock and $10 billion in senior notes.

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